Dear patient readers,
Normally, a big story like this would merit a proper article. But this and other Trump cases are the responsibility of Lambert, who is not planning to write his own article today. I’m not in a position to take his side, because the coverage during the trial was so bad that I was often in MEGO mode whenever I encountered it. Lambert said he would have had to spend twice as much time as usual and wear a moon suit instead of his usual waders to get a better understanding of what happened in court.
The Trump camp will obviously appeal. They need a constitutional theory because no matter how compelling the arguments, it is highly unlikely that a New York court would overturn the decision. I think they will look hard at it. Sixth Amendment As evidence:
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall have the right to a speedy and public trial by an impartial jury of the State and district in which the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously determined by law; to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to be subject to compulsory process for the presence of witnesses in his favor; and to the assistance of counsel for his defense.
Lambert and other critics noted that the original indictment did not specify what crimes prosecutors were relying on to turn misdemeanor record violations into felonies — a possible explanation for a failure to give Trump sufficient specificity to prepare a proper defense.
Lambert pointed out additional issues, but I don’t know if they will be grounds for appeal. Yesterday at the Water Cooler, he explained the judge’s instructions in detail: Includes jury verdict document:
Regarding the “charged offence”, page 27:
“Verdict Sheet” page 53:
(1) These are the charges set forth in Bragg’s indictment, each of which is a separate business records violation.
(2) Note the checkboxes that are not included in Merchan:
surely vote The public is interested in knowing Which Trump’s misdemeanor (if he had one) was transformed into a felony by a violation of purpose. A ridiculously minor tax violation? A salacious “catch and kill” scheme as he was told? A campaign finance violation? Apparently Marchand doesn’t care about his constituents at all. I suspect that Marchand, who maximized the path to conviction with a broad unanimity definition with the help of the loafer-manipulating flexnet on this project, is unwilling to “show me his work” and show how that definition worked in reality. I don’t know if this is grounds for an appeal, but it scares me. “Our Law”! “Our Democracy”!
The verdict document makes unclear the jury’s findings of fact as to which targeted offense elevated a misdemeanor business records crime to a felony. Is this an arguable due process violation?
We’d love to hear your thoughts on what this conviction means for the campaign. No doubt both parties will tout it. Trump appears to have started a new fundraising campaign on the basis of the verdict. Would Biden’s campaign’s heavy emphasis on Trump’s conviction give him a boost? Or is it simply another way of saying “Orange Man is bad, I’m not him”?
Some of the reactions. The decidedly centrist USA Today included a headline shared by Truth Social after the ruling. From its main article on the impact: How would a conviction of Donald Trump affect his reelection? Is there any political fallout here for him?:
Former President Donald Trump The 2024 White House race is in uncharted territory: How voters react to first-time major party nominee Convicted of a crime…….
While the challenge is unprecedented, Trump’s approach is all too familiar: attacking the legal system.
“This has been a rigged decision from day one,” Trump told reporters at the courthouse less than an hour after he was convicted, echoing comments Republicans have made in the past. Voters should prepare for possible guilty verdict…
One thing Trump likely won’t have to worry about anytime soon: prison. He plans to appeal his sentence, a process that could take years.
As far as the ruling goes, NBC’s landing page is much flashier than USA Today’s.
ABC appears to be treating this decision as if it were old news.
At CBS, it’s obviously big news, but there’s no capital letters, just a banner headline across every column.
From Edward Luce, former speechwriter for Larry SummersTrump’s conviction puts America’s political system on trial Financial Times:
The Republican candidate is now Former Campaign Manager, Senior Political Advisor, White House Chief Strategistand National Security Advisor As convicted criminals. The promptness and unanimity of the jury’s decision leaves little doubt as to the certainty of the verdict….
Minutes after the verdict, Republican leaders rushed to denounce the trial as politically motivated hypocrisy and a travesty of justice. Democrats rejoiced that justice had been served and that no one was above the law. These polarized reactions are unsurprising, but ominous. They determine the fate of this presidential election in a battle over the rule of law…
The big question is whether the verdict will have any impact on the relatively small number of American voters who neither hate nor love Trump. Polls suggest that a large proportion of swing voters would change their view of Trump if he were convicted. But what people tell pollsters in the abstract has little bearing on how they will react to the onslaught of contradictory propaganda they will face.
But it’s hard to see any upside to finding Trump guilty. Even after his main rival for the nomination, Nikki Haley, dropped out of the race earlier this year, roughly a fifth of Republican voters voted as “independents” in subsequent primaries. If even a small percentage of those voted not to vote, or for Biden, it could change the outcome of a close election. Still, Democrats should be wary of pocketing the legal ruling as a political victory.
A longer discussion on CNN, Trump’s conviction marks a dark and destabilizing moment in American historySimilarly, Biden’s campaign is focused on “rule of law” issues and related threats to “our democracy.” Initial comments by Biden’s spokesperson suggest the campaign will be emphasizing these themes even more. They will no doubt be hoping that this message will be more effective now that the convictions have been handed down. What that impact is will soon be known from polling data.
The CNN article makes an interesting point: the prosecution was dangerous.
CNN presidential historian Timothy Naftali said Thursday that Trump’s call for a campaign against the judiciary means all Republicans will be forced to make the judiciary a central part of their 2024 campaigns. “In my view, it will create a torrent of venom worse than what we saw in the ‘Stop the Steal’ campaign that preceded January 6th, and it will further destabilize an already sensitive nation,” Naftali said. “I’m concerned because the ‘Stop the Steal’ campaign has sowed widespread doubts about the integrity of our electoral system and led many to believe that fraud occurred in 2020.”
A question that has long loomed over the trial is whether the crime — misleading voters by falsifying financial records to hide hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016 — was serious enough for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to risk the extraordinary political consequences of indicting the former president. The prosecution’s decision to use Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen as a key witness, despite him having been convicted of tax evasion and lying to Congress, was highly controversial. Trump lawyer Todd Blanche told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Thursday that the timing of the trial, in the middle of the election campaign, was unfair to the former president.
But the indictment was not trumped up by prosecutors, as Trump has argued. It was brought by a grand jury. The former president was presumed innocent until proven guilty and tried by a jury of his peers. The Constitution, which Trump now claims has been hijacked, will still protect him on any appeal, just as it does in every other criminal case.
But once the jury has reached a verdict, justice is deemed to have been served. Thus, the Republicans’ immediate attack on the judge, the court and the verdict represents an extraordinary attempt by one of the country’s two major political parties to attack the integrity of our justice system.
Interestingly, Fox seems to have run a story based on voter interviews first, but we can assume the sample is highly biased, so polls and focus groups would still be needed (Frank Luntz)
Finally, some thoughts from the Twitter world: Oddly, tweets about this conviction are not prominent in my feed (Following and For You). Is Musk trying to cover this up? A search turned up mostly triumphant responses.
It only takes one juror to strike down a juror: Juror No. 2, who said Trump’s Truth Social was his only news source, and even he didn’t vote not guilty on a single charge.
Save your dishonest/fake/fake opinions for your echo chamber friends and donors. pic.twitter.com/EWvjqeLE8I
— Ryan Silvey (@RyanSilvey) May 30, 2024
Donald Trump just has to keep winning. pic.twitter.com/L9AQJJFEAU
— Joe (@JoJoFromJerz) May 31, 2024
It is a reminder that Hillary Clinton, who would have won the popular vote and become the first female president, was one of millions of victims of Donald Trump’s election fraud scheme. pic.twitter.com/2uDSKbVYcJ
— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) May 31, 2024
A video of people celebrating President Trump’s conviction has caused a stir on the internet. pic.twitter.com/gnoYxJVTKa
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) May 31, 2024
But there’s more:
I will vote for Trump.
I don’t like him either.
I am tired of the left. Tired of DEI, gun control, tax hikes, climate change nonsense, and billions of dollars in aid to foreigners.
I’m not voting for that guy, I’m voting for the angry china shop idiot who’s trying to burn down Washington.
— Ron Rule (@ronrule) May 30, 2024
I maxed out my credit card tonight donating to the Trump campaign!
Because I want all the headlines tomorrow to say that the Trump campaign raised $100 million just hours after the stupid verdict! Trump is the choice in 2024!!!!!!
Fucking dictator Joe Biden and his… pic.twitter.com/B3PDgtghiP
— Philip Anderson (@VoteBidenOut) May 31, 2024
I will vote for Trump.
I don’t like him either.
I am tired of the left. Tired of DEI, gun control, tax hikes, climate change nonsense, and billions of dollars in aid to foreigners.
I’m not voting for that guy, I’m voting for the angry china shop idiot who’s trying to burn down Washington.
— Ron Rule (@ronrule) May 30, 2024
Wow!🚨
This is what they are trying to distract you from with President Trump’s ruling!
Joe Biden has given Ukraine permission to use US weapons in Russia!
This is World War III level nonsense! pic.twitter.com/7PnuKQTcwU
— Steve 🇺🇸 (@SteveLovesAmmo) May 30, 2024
So we’re in a political fog. More will become clear next week, especially the impact on Trump in the polls.
