by Calculated Risk June 7, 2024, 9:08 AM
The May employment report showed that the number of employed people was much higher than expected, but the number of employed people in March and April was revised downward by a combined 15,000. The labor force participation rate and the employment rate fell, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%.
Construction employment increased by 21,000, 613,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
Manufacturing employment increased by 8,000, 185,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
Because overall participation rates are affected by both cyclical (recessions) and demographic factors (ageing population, young people staying in school), the employment-population ratio for the main working-age group, 25-54 years old, is:
The labor force participation rate for those aged 25-54 rose to 83.6% in May from 83.5% in April, while the employment rate for those aged 25-54 remained unchanged at 80.8% from 80.8% the previous month.
Average hourly wage
This chart shows the nominal year-over-year change in “average hourly wage” for all private sector employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has been declining since peaking at 5.9% y/y in March 2022, to 4.1% y/y in May.
Part-time for financial reasons
From BLS report:
“The number of people working part-time for economic reasons remained at 4.4 million, little changed from May – these people wanted full-time employment but were forced to work part-time because their hours were cut or they could not find full-time work.“
The number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell to 4.42 million in May from 4.47 million in April, slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers: Alternative measures Labor force underutilization (U-6) was unchanged at 7.4% from the previous month. This is down from the all-time high of 23.0% in April 2020 and up from the all-time low (seasonally adjusted) of 6.5% in December 2022. (This series began in 1994.) This indicator is above the February 2020 (pre-pandemic) level of 7.0%.
Unemployed for more than 26 weeks
This graph shows the number of workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 1.35 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and are still looking for work, up from 1.25 million the previous month.
This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
Continuous employment
The jobs report indicates 41 consecutive months of positive employment growth through May 2024, making the current employment streak the fifth-longest in U.S. history (since 1939).
| Hot Jobs, Top 10 Consecutive Years | ||
|---|---|---|
| End of fiscal year | Consecutive Records, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| Four | 1979 | 45 |
| Five | 20241 | 41 |
| 6 ties | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 ties | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 ties | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| Ten | 1995 | twenty five |
| 1Current Winning Streak | ||
summary:
The April employment report showed headline payroll numbers well above expectations, but the March and April payrolls were revised down by a combined 15,000. The participation rate and employment rate fell, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%. Another strong report.
