It’s odd that Russia’s attack on the Ukrainian power grid has received so little attention, even though it is an attack that the West or Ukraine cannot stop or even slow down. Physical warfare has received far more attention, presumably because it is closer to home and consumes more money, weapons and personnel. Helmer points out below that the Washington Post cited Ukrainian sources who say at least 86% of Ukraine’s generating capacity has been destroyed.
It is to Russia’s advantage that so much more attention is being focused on the traditional battlefield. This means that officials who still have their minds on the line of contact stand to suffer very embarrassing losses when Ukraine starts to collapse. Russia controls when that happens, but the 86% figure and limited options (discussed below) indicate that things are pretty close to catastrophe. It will be interesting to see whether US and NATO leaders are outraged or sulk, as they seem to have left the media totally unprepared for this outcome.
We have pointed out that Russia controls Ukraine’s future because the entire Ukrainian system runs on Soviet standards. And it is Russia, not the US or NATO countries, that manufactures that level of equipment. Please do not suggest that Western countries can step in and meet Ukraine’s needs. Private companies are not going to build factories that manufacture equipment that is of a large scale and specialized to them. We are struggling to scale up to increase production of less high-tech items that are in continuous demand, like 155mm shells.
John Helmer is the longest-serving foreign correspondent in Russia and the only Western journalist to run his own bureau independent of any particular nation-state or commercial ties. Helmer is also a professor of political science and has served as an advisor to government leaders in Greece, the United States and Asia. He is the first and only member of a U.S. presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to be based in Russia. Originally published at: Dance with Bears
As Ukraine’s summer peak electricity season approaches, the Russian General Staff’s target list for the power war is shrinking, since almost all of Ukraine’s power plants have been shut down. To be destroyed are the interconnections and distribution grids for the electricity Ukraine imports from Poland and other European Union neighbors. Next up for destruction are microwave and cell phone towers, as well as diesel fuel reserves that power backup generators.
“Maintaining Ukraine’s mobile phone network is as difficult as maintaining its power grid,” a military official said. Observer“The General Staff has estimated that the influx of Ukrainian refugees to the West is inversely proportional to the flow of data and electronics through Ukrainian airwaves and transmission lines. Before the end of the summer, this relationship is expected to be significantly reversed. The calculations made regarding the situation in the West are only beginning to become clear.”
The electrical war is now accelerating toward the Polish border at a faster pace than the Russian forces are advancing along the line east of the Dnieper.
In the very long history of siege warfare there has never been a case in which enemy civilians fled safely from a castle or city, leaving the remaining fortresses and troops to choose between surrender or destruction.
Read the story files on the Electric Wars from October 2022 onwards here.
The geographical scope, explosive power, and cost of each attack are accelerating. On June 1, a Russian military blog, a semi-official daily source of news from the battlefield, reported that energy facilities had been hit in five regions of Ukraine: Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk in the east, and Kirovograd and Ivano-Frankivsk in the west. Two thermal power plants were severely damaged. DamagedUkrainian forces counted a volley of 53 missiles and 47 drones.
The following day, on June 2, Russian sources, citing the consumer bulletin of the Electricity of Ukraine, reported that emergency blackouts and power restrictions were being implemented in Kyiv and the surrounding area. On June 5, the situation in Kyiv worsened further, according to the main private electricity company DTEK and the state-owned company Ukrenergo, which runs the country’s high-voltage electricity grid. line.
June 6-7, The Washington Post – Editorial motto: “Democracy dies in darkness” – report Ukrainian utility managers and government officials have confirmed that at least 86% of the country’s generating capacity has been destroyed, the paper reported. “We are facing a catastrophic shortage of needed electricity,” the paper quoted Sergey Kovalenko, CEO of Ukraine’s private power company YASNO, as saying. … The blackout has divided Kyiv into haves and have-nots, with even some privileged residents of upscale neighborhoods suddenly falling into the latter category. “DTEK has lost about 86% of its generating capacity,” DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko said. “What makes the situation even worse is that many power facilities have been repeatedly targeted, resulting in a cycle of destruction, restoration, destruction,” he said. “Next week will be better,” Ukrenergo spokeswoman Maria Tsaturian said. “The week after that could be worse.” “The rolling blackouts will continue. The only question is how severe they will be,” Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudritsky said. Said“We’re talking about a massive reduction in power generation,” said Yuri Kubrushko, founder of Ukrainian energy consultancy Impower. “I have little idea where Ukraine will get new surplus power just this winter.”
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
To advertise its desperation for more foreign money and equipment replacements, DTEK has republished the Washington Post story.
Boris Rosin, Editor in Chief Colonel Casado Military Blog A Russian correspondent in Moscow reported that the Krivoy Rog power plant in the east was still operating despite several previous attacks. “Further attacks are needed,” he said.
Source: https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
A walk through Odessa’s shopping district on June 7 revealed emergency generators providing power to nearly every commercial establishment. facility.
“This is by no means sustainable,” commented a NATO military engineer. “Notice that each factory has its own generators. The generators in the video are not designed for the duty cycle they are operating on. They will wear out quickly. Troops, including deployed NATO personnel, also use factories and generators. The idea of pooling resources and sharing the load between generators to reduce wear and tear on the entire network and pool fuel and maintenance costs does not seem to occur to them. Surely, there will be no end to electrocutions, carbon monoxide poisoning and fires. The signs of social pathology we are seeing here must be taken into account by the General Staff. Their point of attack is to block the supply of fuel, engine oil, spare parts and replacements.”
Russian and Ukrainian journalists are independent confirm The impact of the blackout on the operation of water supply and sewerage systems in most Ukrainian cities. According to Oleg Popenko, a Ukrainian expert on energy for public services, “Armageddon has already come, it just hasn’t been felt yet. But the residents of Poltava, for example, feel it, because since May 5 this year, 120,000 residents have been receiving water by the hour and using the sewer system by the hour. You can imagine what happened in Zhytomyr when the central sewer collector did not work for a week, but in Poltava it has been a month. And this is what is happening to the water supply in 70% of Ukrainian cities. Water supply is probably more important than the rest of the city’s infrastructure. Heat and electricity can be replaced in some way, they can go somewhere. But if the sewerage system stops working in a city, the city will not be able to survive in principle.”
NATO military engineers have compiled a list of predicted Russian targets for the coming days: “Commercial fuel storage and distribution networks are expected to come under attack. These are legitimate military targets, since the Ukrainian armed forces depend on them for the war effort. Railways should also be attacked. There is no military justification for keeping them functioning. Given that NATO countries support the attack on Russian territory, we see no reason for Moscow to leave intact the railroad network connecting Lvov and Kiev to Rzeszow (Poland).”
“The target list should include border switching stations and substations connecting the Ukrainian-European power grid. Destroy them, target the power plants that transmit electricity from the nuclear plants, and the mission will be complete. There will be no more loads. to keep balance This will be followed immediately by the collapse of Ukraine’s logistics and society. If the substation that connects the nuclear power plant to the power grid is destroyed, it will be the end for Ukrainians.”
NOTE: Lead images -- left, blackout warning on June 4 from DTEK. Centre: pedestrian walking dog in central Kiev, June 6. Shops on Odessa city street powered by emergency generating sets, June 8.
