From a perspective with a hope of preserving civilization and some degree of planetary health, lower birth rates, and ultimately lower population levels, seem highly desirable. And before the Industrial Revolution, population levels were generally static.
However, with modernization came the concept of progress, and in parallel with the rise of capitalism, growth came to be considered essential. Population growth (barring major disruptions such as war or economic crisis) creates a baseline for demand growth. Another source of economic growth is increased productivity.
The need for growth is so acutely recognized that a new article in the Wall Street Journal Suddenly, there weren’t enough babies.the whole world is on alertdo not feel the need to explain why the declining birthrate and population are viewed as such issues. Ambitious young people need new worlds to conquer, but that impulse can become destructive as the economic pie gradually shrinks or grows. And sir, what will happen to real estate prices?
Similarly, the press and commentators argue that between a generally very robust elderly population and high levels of social cohesion, the Japanese simply stand still, despite the fact that they appear to be enduring their suffering terribly well. Just by doing so, Japan, which has an aging population, was shrouded in fear.
Authors Greg Yip (also known as the Fed Whisperer) and Janet Adamy describe the perplexity and anguish of experts. However, as we will see, this may not be so difficult to understand if excessive sentimentality does not get in the way.
Delving into the factors that make modern parenting difficult, despite a far greater level of affluence, some people are better suited to be parents than others. And that’s important because raising children, especially those who function as adults, is hard and often not as rewarding as it is widely portrayed, especially in advertisements that show always-smiling families. In the United States, research repeatedly shows that married couples with children are, on average, less happy than couples without children, but have a greater sense of purpose in life. Consumer marketing reinforces the idea that the pursuit of pleasure, not obligation, is the important objective.
This is before we get into the fact that child-rearing duties fall primarily on women (no offense intended, but for the sake of ease of discussion, we’ll focus on traditional families; single parents and Because same-sex couples face additional obstacles if they are raising children). Male partners can choose how involved they want to be, including withdrawing completely.
It seems strange that the business press is so perplexed as to what is going on. Late-stage capitalism is not child-friendly. The company wants its employees to be mobile, as this could mean moving away from family members who can provide junior backup. The nine-to-five day workday, now chicken-scarce for office workers and professionals, and the regular shift work of factory workers create predictability in schedules that organize the supervision of children. and gave children a sense of order in their world. Late neoliberalism has also led to a significant increase in income and wealth inequality and a corresponding decline in income and class mobility in the United States and many other developed countries. This increases the stakes in raising our children well, such as sending them to the right schools or sending them on club trips that increase their chances of finding a good job or a good partner.
The final factor is that at least some, and probably many potential parents are concerned about the current state of the world and are wondering if having children is the right thing to do. And it means that not only will their descendants increase the environmental burden, but that their descendants will suffer social chaos, violence, and other dystopian consequences as competition for scarce resources becomes desperate. It means there is a possibility.
Now onto the important part of this article.
The world is at a remarkable demographic juncture. In the near future, the world’s birth rate will fall below the level needed to keep population constant. It may already be happening.
Fertility rates for women are declining almost everywhere, at all levels of income, education, and labor force participation. Declining birth rates will have profound implications for the way people live, the way economies grow, and the country’s status as a world superpower.
High-income countries, where birth rates fell below replacement in the 1970s, got cold feet during the pandemic. It is also on the decline in developing countries. India overtook China last year to become the most populous country, but its fertility is now below replacement.
Let me point out the obvious. As soon as women had greater reproductive control with the pill and other new types of contraception, they had fewer children. While many women enjoy motherhood despite the concentration of bodily fluids (and here I mean more than just breastfeeding), the harsh reality is that in Britain and Europe, most aristocratic This means that women left childcare to servants (see Talleyrand’s biography, especially Churchill). They considered it a menial job. Therefore, unless society, beyond Hallmark Schmaltz, affirms the importance of motherhood and backs it up with action, especially now that women are able to access and hold increasingly good and interesting jobs, , many women will gravitate toward paid work.
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Many government leaders consider this a matter of national urgency. They are concerned about a shrinking workforce, slowing economic growth and underfunded pensions. And the vitality of a society with a declining birthrate. Shrinking populations have diminished global influence, raising questions about the United States, China and Russia’s long-term status as superpowers.
Some demographers believe that the world’s population could begin to grow within 40 years, one of the few times in history that this has occurred.
Note that bottom beat is assumed to be bad. But does this necessarily mean a decline in per capita GDP? Especially amid the much-hyped productivity wonders from AI to the introduction of self-driving cars and other robots. Otherwise, a shrinking workforce would mean having to pay workers more and be more tolerant of currently marginalized groups like the elderly and the disabled (and ugly people!!) It could and probably will. Horror! And are “underfunded pensions” really just Social Security, a pay-as-you-go program, or a dog whistle over concerns that a thriving stock market could become a thing of the past?
Demographers are surprised by the accelerating decline in global birth rates that began in 2017, and the world has already reached the point where the current reproductive rate is below replacement level. I will omit the discussion. What I would like to note here is that nowhere in this work is there a decline in the physical birth rate, such as an increase in the number of couples having difficulty conceiving, or the fact that they are enthusiastic about child-rearing projects and want to have more children if they can. There is no mention of how much it is reducing the birth rate of people who may be born.
Next, this article focuses on what parental commitment looks like in the United States, especially among parents with college degrees. This article briefly describes the Pittmans of Raleigh, North Carolina. The couple, both working, decided to have only one child, and the costs of his various life-enriching activities seem to support their decision.
From other parts of the world:
Even though India remains poor and many women are not working, the birth rate is below replacement, which is usually what keeps the birth rate going.
Thanks to urbanization and the internet, even women living in traditionally male-dominated villages have been given a glimpse of a society where fewer children and a higher quality of life are the norm.
Don’t underestimate the power of television. I was in Bali in the early 1990s when television was introduced. Thanks to a melodrama, her wife (remember that most married women in Bali at that time belonged to polygamy) suddenly expresses her troubles that she is no longer loved by her husband to various elders. I started consulting with them.
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May Maryam Thomas, 38, who lives in Mumbai and runs an audio production company, said she chose not to have children because she had never felt the pull of motherhood. She has seen her colleagues struggle to meet the right person, marry later, and in some cases divorce before they have children. At least three of her friends have frozen their eggs, she said.
“I think it’s difficult for anyone in the world to find a partner because I think we live in a really different world right now,” she said.
Sub-Saharan Africa once seemed resilient to global fertility decline, but that is changing. According to the international organization Family Planning 2030, the proportion of all women of reproductive age using modern contraceptive methods has increased from 17% in 2012 to 23% in 2022. .
When the low birth rate cycle begins (Director of the Global Aging Institute).
The story then turns to how the government is implementing policies to increase birth rates, but they are not having much effect. They begin with Japan’s many efforts that only temporarily reversed the decline in births.
What this article doesn’t mention is that Japanese women are (tacitly) revolting en masse against what a terrible deal it is to be a wife and mother. Her husband, who has a regular job (one that allows him to support his family), works long hours, so she rarely sees her spouse except on weekends. And since the home belongs to women, I don’t think they will help much, if at all, with childcare or housework. In the 1990s, there was an increase in the number of “parasitic singles,” women who work without getting married and stay at home with their parents. The post-crisis rise in the number of “freeters” (men without full-time jobs and in precarious employment) has not helped.
And immigration is not a great solution.
Neil Howe, a demographer at Hedgeye Risk Management, said recent developments suggest this could be the second consecutive “lost decade” for global economic growth due to deteriorating demographic trends. He pointed to a World Bank report.
The usual prescription in developed countries is to increase immigration, but there are two problems with that. As more countries face population stagnation, migration between the two countries has become a zero-sum game. Historically, host countries have sought skilled immigrants who enter the country through formal legal channels, but the recent influx is primarily of unskilled immigrants, often entering the country illegally and applying for asylum.
Also, historically, mass immigration has provoked political resistance due to concerns about cultural and demographic change. These concerns are likely to be exacerbated by the decline in indigenous populations. Many of the leaders most passionate about raising birth rates are also the most resistant to immigration.
Note that there is little consideration of how reproductive control reduced the risks of female employment and enabled women to access better jobs over time (this is typical is). Woman lib (remember that vulgar word?) encouraged women to expect even more from their mates at a time when expectations for men’s roles changed little. This exclusionary behavior seems to me to be an important factor in why women, who are the primary caregivers, don’t want to have as many children, but also because “women are more educated, so they have fewer children.” It’s strangely ignored in favor of 50,000-foot explanations such as “We don’t do that.” I don’t have any children. ” Well, that in itself doesn’t have much explanatory power. When my mother was in college, women were portrayed as pursuing degrees. Similarly, when Radcliffe celebrated her 100th birthday, her joy was “her 100 years of enlightened motherhood.”
The article also ignores the reality facing policymakers: they need to learn how to deal with a stagnant and ultimately declining population.
