by calculated risk May 15, 2024 09:02:00 AM
The indicators of inflation are:
The first graph is what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was referring to when shelter services, net of rent, rose about 8% year over year. Although it was decreasing, it has recently started to increase and is currently increasing by 4.9% compared to the previous year.
Click on the graph to see a larger image.
This graph shows the year-on-year change in prices for services and shelter rents until April 2024.
Shelter services, excluding rent, increased 4.9% year over year in April, up from 4.8% year over year in March.
The second graph shows that commodity prices started rising year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021, due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.
Commodities excluding food and energy products were -1.2% y/y in April, down from -0.7% y/y in March.
This is a graph of year-over-year change in shelters in the CPI report (through April) and housing in the PCE report (through March).
Shelter sales rose 5.5% in April compared to the same month last year., down from 5.6% in March. Housing (PCE) rose 5.79% year-on-year in March, slightly down from 5.85% in February.
This has not yet caught up with personal data. BLS stated this morning: ”Like the gasoline index, the shelter index also rose in April. Together, these two indexes contributed more than 70% of the monthly increase in all indexes.”
Core CPI (excluding shelters) increased by 2.1% year-on-year in April, down from 2.4% in March.
