by Calculated Risk May 30, 2024 11:25 AM
Today’s Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final regional housing market outlook for April and sales outlook for May
Short excerpt:
In April, sales in these markets increased 7.6% year over year. In March, sales in the same markets were down 10.0% year over year on a seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis.
Sales in most of these markets are down compared to January 2019. Sales in Grand Rapids and Nashville are up compared to 2019.
This represents an increase in year-over-year NSA in these markets. However, because there were two more business days in April 2024 compared to April 2023, seasonally adjusted sales were lower year-over-year than non-seasonally adjusted sales.
This represents a 7.6% year-over-year decline in NSA in these markets, which is roughly the same as the 6.8% decline in NSA. NAR reports.
May sales were primarily driven by contracts signed in March and April, and mortgage rates increased slightly to an average of 6.99% in April. My initial expectation is that on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis, May sales will be down compared to April.
Note for next month (May sales): Because May 2024 had the same number of business days as May 2023, the year-over-year change in seasonally adjusted sales will be roughly the same as what the NSA data shows.
There’s a lot more in the article.
