Public and private sector payroll services during the President’s term

by Calculated Risk June 16, 2024 8:21 AM

Note: I’ve had many requests recently to post this again, so here it is again with an update tracking employment during Presidential terms. Presidential terms are often used as a time marker; you could also use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.

Important: There are many differences between these time periods – overall employment was lower in the 80s, but labor force participation increased in the 80s (younger people and women joined the workforce), and now there is an overall decline in labor force participation – but these graphs give an overview of employment change.

The first chart shows the change in private sector salaried employment from the time each president took office to the end of their term. Carter, George H. W. Bush and President Trump all served one term in office.

GW Bush (red) took office after the stock market bubble burst and left office during the housing bubble burst. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. There was also a major recession in the early 1980s, shortly after Reagan (dark red) took office.

There was a recession at the end of President GHW Bush’s (lilac) term, no recession in eight years under Clinton’s (light blue) administration, and then there was a pandemic-related recession in 2020.

First, a table on private sector employment: The top two terms for private sector employment to date were both during President Clinton’s terms.

The first graph shows only private employment.

Private sector employment increased by 9.039 million under Carter (dashed green line), 14.714 million under Reagan (dark red), 1.507 million under G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20.97 million under Clinton (light blue), 377 thousand under G.W. Bush, and 11.833 million under Obama (dark dashed blue line). During Trump’s term (orange), the economy lost 2.135 million private sector jobs.

In the first 40 months of President Biden’s term, the economy lost 1,531,000 public sector jobs (approximately 92% of public sector job growth comes from state and local governmentsand for education it is around 55%.

Public sector employment chart. Public sector employment has increased the most during the Biden administration, slightly surpassing the figure for the second term of the Reagan administration. Public sector employment declined the most during the first term of the Obama administration.