by Calculated Risk July 26, 2024 8:53 AM
Below are graphs of the year-over-year changes for dwellings from this morning’s CPI report and for housing from the PCE report, both through June 2024.
CPI shelter rose 5.1% year-over-year in June, down from 5.4% in May and also down from the March 2023 cycle peak of 8.2%.
Asking rents are almost flat compared to the previous year, so these measures It will continue to decline gradually over the next year..
The second chart shows PCE prices, core PCE prices, and core home prices (annualized) over the past three months.
The key indicator is slightly above the Fed’s target on a three-month basis.Note: There appears to still be seasonality distorting PCE prices in the first quarter, particularly in January.
Three-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 1.5%
Core PCE Price: 2.3%
Core minus residential: 1.8%
