By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Readers, more on Politics to come shortly. I thought if I waited, we’d have word on Kamala’s VP selection. I also have to give some thought to Democrats and (dread word) race, or rather racial classification. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Blue Mockingbird, Zona Arqueológica Monte Albán–Camino Ecológico, Centro, Oaxaca, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
(1) Kamala’s VP search.
(2) Trish Greenhalgh on Long Covid.
(3) Covid and class.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than one hundred days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
First poll with Harris at the top of the Democrat ticket; Trump’s position deteriorates (and any advantage he gained from the assassination attempt has been wiped away. Nevertheless, he still leads, albeit within the margin of error. NOTE RCP used to have two pages of swing states; I always used the first one. Now there is only one, which I take as an indicator that Harris v. Trump polling is not all that widespread.
Vibe shift:
Unbelievable vibe shift in the US with Kamala Harris https://t.co/LAZoglUMHW pic.twitter.com/rrMisGHLbu
— Albert Pinto (@70sBachchan) July 26, 2024
We’ll see what the averages say Friday, but:
Harris has wiped out Trump’s lead across seven swing states in the latest round of the Bloomberg News / Morning Consult poll. The poll found a big Dem lead in Michigan, a more modest Trump lead in Pennsylvania and close contests everywhere else. Dead heat.https://t.co/UzzZaknhD2 pic.twitter.com/xxJN94TFec
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) July 30, 2024
Lots of Brownian motion here, still. More noteworthy is that Trump got no visible bounce from the assassination.
* * * * * * Kamala (D): “Harris’ high-stakes veepstakes: Fundraising powerhouses vie for VP slot” (Open Secrets). Handy chart:
I’ve highlighted the conventional wisdom of those in the running.
* * * Kamala (D): “The DNC virtual roll call to nominate Kamala Harris is underway. This is how it will work” (WHYY). “Delegates to the Democratic National Convention began officially selecting their nominee for president in a process that kicked off Thursday. But unlike in past years, they are not doing so in the raucous party atmosphere of the convention floor or even during the convention itself. Instead, they are filling out electronic ballots at their homes, offices or vacation spots more than two weeks before the first delegate steps foot inside Chicago’s United Center. Vice President Kamala Harris is the only candidate eligible to receive votes after no other candidate qualified by a Tuesday night deadline. The ‘virtual roll call,’ the term used by Democratic National Committee officials, will allow Harris to claim the nomination by Monday evening. That’s just 15 days after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek a second term following widespread concerns within the party over his ability to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump in November.” • The byte-filled room….
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission
Corsi-Rosenthal Box still going strong:
The Corsi-Rosenthal box is the best air purifier we’ve tested out of 26 —and it’s one we built ourselves! How can it the BEST air purifier when we’ve got sleek Dysons, portable Levoits, and much cooler boxes of filters? Our newest R&D Video answers that! https://t.co/EwcN8B1jXL pic.twitter.com/aAyUALqVpH
— RTINGS.com (@rtingsdotcom) June 27, 2024
NOTE More modern designs use big honkin’ computer fans suitable for gaming machines. These are quieter, and also can be assembled in areas that don’t use box fans (Southeast Asia). However, the same engineering principles apply.
Maskstravaganza
“Masking Policies at National Cancer Institute–Designated Cancer Centers During Winter 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 Surge” (JAMA). “Cancer centers were more likely to require universal masking in at least some areas if they were located in the Northeast (11 (78.6%)), had longer NCI designation duration (first quintile: 10 (83.3%)), had more program funding (first quintile: 11 (84.6%)), or (first quintile: 11 (84.6%))” • And no wonder!
Sequelae: Covid
Long COVID: a clinical update” (preview) (Trish Greenhalgh et al., The Lancet). “Long COVID currently has no definitive cure, so prevention is of the utmost importance. The best way to prevent long COVID is to prevent COVID-19 through well established public health measures such as paying attention to indoor air quality (eg, ventilation or filtration); wearing well fitting, high-filtration masks or respirators when appropriate; and supporting infectious individuals to quarantine. People with acute COVID-19 should ensure they rest.” • Handy chart of the multiple pathways to Long Covid (the “pinball machine” below):
r
The following is Greenhalgh’s “lay summary” of the Lancet piece:
“Long COVID – a dystopian game of pinball” (Trish Greenhalgh, Independent Sage). The deck: “Prof Trish Greenhalgh explains the findings of her recent comprehensive Lancet review of Long Covid.” Brilliant extended metaphor: “Long COVID is a real condition whose complex biological basis is beginning to be understood. The sequence of events that makes COVID-19 into a protracted (and quite possibly, lifelong) illness in some but not all people is a bit like a dystopian game of pinball. An unlucky ball hits a series of key buffers, buzzers and bells, triggering a cascade of further events… (T(hese changes flip off additional cascades of biochemical messengers (‘supplementary pathological mechanisms’), which, in health, contribute to keeping the body in balance…. (T(hese microscopic changes in genes, molecules, proteins, cells and micro-organisms produce various kinds of organ damage…. (T)hese organ-level changes lead to the well-known symptoms of Long COVID described in the second paragraph above. . But . You didn’t get that when you had COVID-19? Lucky you. The ball of your initial infection missed a few vital targets. But that doesn’t mean you’re immune from Long COVID for life. Your next infection could light up the whole machine.” • Yep.
“Long Covid Defined” (“Sounding Board”) (NEJM). Interesting to read on conjunction with Greenhalgh. Here is their definition, which does come in the form of a Figure:
Elite Maleficence
“Upcoming Meeting” (HICPAC). “The next HICPAC meeting is scheduled for August 22-23, 2024. This will be a virtual meeting.” I wonder why? More: “. See agenda for time dedicated to public comments…. Public engagement and input are vital to HICPAC’s work.” • No agenda is posted. Of course. Here is the roster, which lists seven members. That’s odd: HICPAC’s charter: “The Committee shall consist of 14 non-Federal members, including the Chair or Co-Chairs.” Does the current make-up even have a quorum?
Lambert here: New York hospitalization leveling out, and now WalGreens positivity down for two weeks, are the first positive signs I’ve seen in a long time. Wastewater still going strong, though!
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
(1) (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.
(2) (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
(3) (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.
(4) (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
(5) (Hospitalization: NY) Leveling off. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
(6) (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
(7) (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.
(8) (Cleveland) Slowing. Comment on the Cleveland Clinic:
Why is the Cleveland Clinic building a new facility for a professional basketball team? These hospitals are not ‘nonprofits’ they are ridiculously profitable monopolies with an endless cash gusher to point at whatever they want. https://t.co/1REM2LMLjd
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 29, 2024
Ka-ching.
(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
(10) (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.
(11) Deaths low, but positivity up.
(12) Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” (Trading Economics). “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 14,000 to 249,000 on the period ending July 27th, reaching an almost new yearly high, surpassing market expectations of 236,000. This increase, along with other key indicators, indicates that the US labor market continued to weaken during this period, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower benchmark borrowing costs by September.”
Employment Situation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” (Trading Economics). “US employers announced 25,855 job cuts in July 2024, the lowest level in a year, and down 46.9% from June’s 48,786. Still, it is the highest total for the month since 2020, above July 2023’s 23,697.:
Manufacturing: “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI” (Trading Economics). “The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.6 in July of 2024 from 48.5 in the previous month, firmly below market expectations of 48.8, reflecting the sharpest contraction in US factory activity since November 2023.”
The Economy:
This video comparing the same dress across different price points is also very good.
My point is not to tell you how much to spend on something (buy what suits your budget). Only saying that two things that look alike online are not necessarily the samehttps://t.co/UzcnW0vh1V
— derek guy (@dieworkwear) July 31, 2024
Apparel:
This video comparing the same dress across different price points is also very good.
My point is not to tell you how much to spend on something (buy what suits your budget). Only saying that two things that look alike online are not necessarily the samehttps://t.co/UzcnW0vh1V
— derek guy (@dieworkwear) July 31, 2024
The video on Tik Tok scammers and fast fashion is well worth a watch.
Tech: “Hacker Shows How to Get Free Laundry For Life” (404 Media). “Orlitzky then tried a bunch of stuff that did not work for unlocking free laundry… What did work was short circuiting the red and black wires on the coin-drop mechanism. He found this out after discovering a photo of the same coin-drop part on Amazon, he said. With the dryers, Orlitzky writes he had to use a voltage tester to make sure he didn’t get electrocuted, and then expose the wires with a pocket knife. That’s it. ‘The main hurdle is that you have to be pissed off enough to try,’ Orlitzky said. ‘But armed with enough outrage, the actual bypass is fairly accessible.’ Once the prep work is done, shorting both the dryers and washers can be done in seconds or a minute. ‘I do it in the middle of the day. The bypasses don’t harm the machines, and the machines don’t belong to the people who own the buildings/cameras. Your neighbors (who are most likely to catch you in the act) aren’t invested either way. What are they gonna do?’ he added.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 55 Neutral (previous close: 42 Fear) (CNN). One week ago: 40 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 31 at 2:15:54 PM ET.
Zeitgeist Watch
The world might be a different place if we taught grade school kids about power curves instead of averages:
The top 10% of alcohol drinkers in the US consume 74 drinks per week. pic.twitter.com/18QUFhyLuk
— Mike Beckham (@mikebeckhamsm) July 31, 2024
Class Warfare
Yes, of course Long Covid hits the working class disprotionately. From Greenhalgh’s Lancet paper (above):
News of the Wired
“Parasites Are Everywhere. Why Do So Few Researchers Study Them?” (Smithsonian). “But parasites are also diverse and understudied creatures that have evolved to flourish in nearly every animal and ecosystem on Earth. They keep ecosystems in balance, providing a natural control on host species while stimulating their co-evolution over many generations. …. Parasites also change host species’ behavior, leading to oddities like the pop-culture-worthy zombie ants that mysteriously climb ten inches up plants, permanently lock their jaws into the plant, and allow their parasitic fungus (Ophiocordyceps unilateralis) to grow out of their body and rain spores onto unsuspecting ants below. And parasites keep food webs miraculously complex, forming hundreds of connections among themselves, other parasites and host species. Often, in an effort to travel between host animals, parasites will expose their hosts to new predators, like the tapeworm Ligula intestinalis, which grows so large it changes the buoyancy of the fish it inhabits, causing the fish to swim closer to the surface and get eaten by birds. Parasitism, a relationship between two species where one benefits at the other’s expense, has evolved independently over 220 times in animals—more than any other animal lifestyle. Nearly half of all animals are parasites, with conservative estimates at 3.5 million species. Like the mammals, birds, insects and fish all around us, each parasite serves important functions in its environment—ones that, without the parasite, could spell widespread ecological change, if not disaster. For example, a widely supported idea called the ‘enemy release hypothesis‘ suggests that as parasites of invasive plants and animals decrease, the spread and abundance of the invasive species increase.” • Maybe I should have filed this under The Bezzle. Or Class Warfare.
“‘Sensational breakthrough’ marks step toward revealing hidden structure of prime numbers” (Science). “Looking back, Guth recalls a quote from the Austrian poet Rainer Maria Rilke, who instructs an aspiring poet to “live the questions” rather than seeking answers. For Guth, this strategy of being comfortably uncomfortable with intractable problems resonates with his experience as a mathematician.” • One of my intractable problems is reading this thing, which I’m sure is dumbed down for a lay audience. Perhaps a reader will help.
Look at all those PDP-11s!
The top 10% of alcohol drinkers in the US consume 74 drinks per week. pic.twitter.com/18QUFhyLuk
— Mike Beckham (@mikebeckhamsm) July 31, 2024
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