by Calculated Risk August 2, 2024, 9:08 AM
The July employment report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls, with the May and June payrolls revised down by a combined 29,000. The participation rate increased, the employment rate fell, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
Construction employment increased by 25,000, putting the figure at 645,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
Manufacturing employment increased by 1,000, reaching 173,000 above pre-pandemic levels.
Because overall participation rates are affected by both cyclical (recessions) and demographic factors (ageing population, young people staying in school), the employment-population ratio for the key working-age group, 25-54 years old, is:
Participation among those ages 25 to 54 increased from 83.7% in June to 84.0% in July. The highest level since 2001.
The proportion of employed people aged 25 to 54 rose to 80.9% from 80.8% the previous month.
Average hourly wage
This graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “average hourly wage” for all private sector employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has been declining since peaking at 5.9% y/y in March 2022, to 3.6% y/y in July.
From BLS report:
“The number of people working part-time for economic reasons increased by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July – these people wanted full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours were reduced or they could not find full-time work.“
The number of people working part-time for economic reasons rose from 4.22 million in June to 4.57 million in July, above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers: Alternative measures Labor force underutilization (U-6) increased to 7.8% from 7.4% the previous month. This is down from the all-time high of 23.0% in April 2020 but up from the all-time low (seasonally adjusted) of 6.5% in December 2022 (the series began in 1994). The measure is above the February 2020 (pre-pandemic) level of 7.0%.
Unemployed for more than 26 weeks
This graph shows the number of workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, 1.535 million workers have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and are still looking for work, up from 1.516 million the previous month.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Continuous employment
The employment report indicates 43 consecutive months of positive employment growth through July 2024, making the current employment streak the fifth-longest in U.S. history (since 1939).
| Hot Jobs, Top 10 Consecutive Years | ||
|---|---|---|
| End of fiscal year | Consecutive Records, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| Four | 1979 | 45 |
| Five | 20241 | 43 |
| 6 ties | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 ties | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 ties | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| Ten | 1995 | twenty five |
| 1Current Winning Streak | ||
summary:
The July employment report showed weaker-than-expected payrolls, with the May and June payrolls revised down by a combined 29,000. The participation rate increased, the employment rate fell, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
The weaker-than-expected report saw three-month average payroll growth slow to 170 jobs per month. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July from a low of 3.4% at the start of 2023.
