2:00PM Water Cooler 9/18/2024 | naked capitalism

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Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Indian Springs WMA, two-track road, Washington, Maryland, United States. “Adult male Gray Catbird singing from Black Locust at 14 meters at 0541. He was just sitting there singing.”

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Longshoremen to strike in two weeks (plus Boeing).
2. Sean “Diddy” Combs jailed in Epstein-like music industry scandal.
3. Morning Consult: Kamala leads by 6%.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

* * *

“Harris soars to record 6-point lead over Trump in post-debate poll” (Axios). “Vice President Kamala Harris leapt to a six-point lead over former President Trump in the wake of last week’s presidential debate, according to a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday. Most polls before last Tuesday’s debate that saw Harris rattle Trump on a range of topics had the pair locked in a virtual dead heat. ‘A majority of likely voters — including 1 in 5 Republicans — believe Harris won the debate, and performance appears to be crystalizing her national lead over the former president,’ said Eli Yokley, political analyst at Morning Consult, in an emailed statement. Morning Consult pollsters surveyed 11,022 likely U.S. voters from Sept. 13-15 in the poll, which had an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage point. Morning Consult notes that its survey showing support for Harris at 51% compared to 45% for Trump was a “new record” for the Democratic presidential nominee. ‘Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials,’ it said. Morning Consult’s voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they’re highly likely to vote in the November election.”

* * *

Kamala (D): “Harris refuses to veer off script in her second high-profile interview” (Politico). “Harris’ sit-down took place in front of a live audience, which included NABJ members as well as local students of historically Black colleges and universities. At several points throughout the event, members of the small crowd quietly took photos and videos of her answers. In part, Harris’ unwillingness on Tuesday to break from Biden’s approach underscores the challenges of running for office as the sitting vice president. While she has stressed on the campaign trail and in her debate against Trump that she is not Biden, disagreeing with him publicly is still a delicate matter. Not only are there personal relationships at play, but breaking with the president in public could undermine his negotiating power on the international stage.” On reparations: “On whether she would take executive action to create a commission to study reparations or if that was better handled by Congress, Harris said the latter.” On abortion: “Harris, who has repeatedly said that she would sign a bill to codify Roe v. Wade, was also asked whether she supports the restrictions that were outlined in the court decision. Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court overturned in 2022, is best known for protecting abortion rights. But it also stipulated limitations, permitting states to regulate the procedure in the pregnant person’s third trimester. In fact, the landmark Supreme Court case allowed states to ban abortion in the final trimester, as long as the law provided exceptions for the life of the mother. Abortion rights advocates do not support the restrictions in Roe, arguing that the government shouldn’t have any role in regulating abortion. But many voters prefer some but not unlimited abortion access.”

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Maskstravaganza

Masking and virus size:

Al Haddrell has reached a significant conclusion regarding the size of the virus. The virus particles are predominantly found within the range of 1 to 5 microns. Consequently, there is no need to pursue filters of the highest grade for masks or air purifiers when the goal is to… https://t.co/v1npp8KZVW pic.twitter.com/p7KYykcU74

— Adam Wong (@Engineer_Wong) September 18, 2024

I’m a little confused about whether by “virus” is meant the aerosol particle that bears the virus. But an interesting line of inquiry!

Personal Risk Assessment

“People can’t make “risk assessments” without knowing the risks” (The Gauntlet). “US politicians pushed us all ‘back to normal’, a common refrain from the top was that we ‘had the tools’ to deal with COVID, and that individuals could now make their own decisions about what sorts of risks they were comfortable taking. I’ve written at length about the absurdity of attempting to individualize what is a collective problem. What was once a libertarian, far-right wing idea – disease control should be the territory of individuals, not society at large- was first promoted by Republicans, then mainstreamed by liberals in order to paint Biden’s failed vaccine-only herd-immunity strategy as a success. As we settled into a cycle of endless waves of disease driven by rapidly evolving new variants, our government and public health bodies continued to promote the fantasy that everyone can make their own decisions about whether or not to get infected. Of course, anyone who does make the ‘risk assessment’ that catching COVID is unsafe for them is functionally shut out of society. It’s hardly a choice freely made, as the social and economic punishments for failing to ‘return to normal’ continue to intensify.” Meanwhile: “The current CDC Director, Mandy Cohen, has never tweeted the words “cognitive damage,” “brain damage” or “brain fog.” Neither has former CDC Director Rachelle Walensky.”

Elite Maleficence

UK Covid inquiry going nicely for the droplet dogmatists:

The truly ironic thing is that, during ‘The Long Pause’, the only sound you can hear is the faint hum of the HEPA air filters cleaning the air in the room…

…while Dr Ritchie contemplates whether ventilation is only a useful precaution if Covid is airborne.

(H/t @Hermione1963) https://t.co/pJm5QRWiZ6

— Cat in the Hat 🐈‍⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 (@_CatintheHat) September 18, 2024

IPC = Infection Prevention and Control. And what a great job they did. I wonder if we will ever have a similar commission in the United States?

* * *

“Part 1: We Don’t Have to Wonder if the Great Barrington Declaration Could Have “Worked”. In the Real World, It Failed” (Science-Based Medicine). “he Great Barrington Declaration (GBD) was published on October 4th, 2020. It was written under the watchful eye of a pro-tobacco, child-labor advocate, and it claimed we could rid ourselves of the virus by spreading the virus. The GBD claimed we could end the pandemic by April 2021 at the latest, but only if everyone worked in perfect unison…. In the GBD’s vision, the entire country would be informed of their Declaration, and after this, everyone would unite to abruptly and radically shift their entire approach to the pandemic. Citizens would voluntarily and appropriately sort themselves ‘vulnerable’ or ‘not vulnerable’ categories, and everyone would play their assigned role. 230 million or so unvaccinated, ‘not vulnerable’ Americans, most of whom had been diligently trying to avoid the virus thus far, would instantly reverse course and embrace ‘natural infection’. That some of them would get really sick and die would not be a reason for anyone to abandon the project.” • We don’t need to worry about our Journey into a LIbertarian Future anymore. We’re here!

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Housing: “Housing Starts” (Trading Economics). “Housing starts in the United States soared by 9.6% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 1.356 million units in August of 2024, firmly above market expectations of 1.31 million units, rebounding from the near 7% plunge in the previous period to record the sharpest increase in nine months.”

Supply Chain: “With Two Weeks Left and No Talks, Industry Prepares for ILA Strike” (Maritime Executive). “Today marks two weeks till the likely first day of a crippling strike for containers and Ro-Ro traffic at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports as the International Longshoremen’s Association has refused to resume negotiations on the master contract. With no signs of government intervention despite urging from shippers, the industry is looking for alternatives while analysts attempt to forecast the impact…. (The ILA) issued a new statement focusing entirely on wages and rehashing old wage increases, or the lack thereof, dating back to the 1990s. Citing inflation and years of low increases, the ILA says ‘spotty yearly increases’ are history. The ILA said it will reject the USMX (United States Maritime Alliance) position on new entry wage, and calls for large increases. The union writes that it has been preparing for over a year and the time is now to take a ‘stand and fight a higher level of wages.’ Without indicating any willingness to resume the negotiations which have been at an impasse since June, the ILA says a strike ‘seems more likely.’”

Supply Chain: “Longshoremen at key US ports threatening to strike over automation and pay” (ABC). “The International Longshoremen’s Union is demanding significantly higher wages and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container movements that are used in the loading or loading of freight at 36 U.S. ports. Whenever and however the dispute is resolved, it’s likely to affect how freight moves in and out of the United States for years to come. If a strike were resolved within a few weeks, consumers probably wouldn’t notice any major shortages of retail goods. But a strike that persists for more than a month would likely cause a shortage of some consumer products, although most holiday retail goods have already arrived from overseas.”

Supply Chain: “Biden won’t block potential strike at East Coast ports, administration official says” (Reuters). “U.S. President Joe Biden does not intend to invoke a federal law to prevent a port strike on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico if dockworkers fail to secure a new labor contract by an Oct. 1 deadline, an administration official said on Tuesday…. ‘We’ve never invoked Taft-Hartley to break a strike and are not considering doing so now,’ the Biden administration official told Reuters.”

Supply Chain: “US beef market debates effect of potential International Longshoremen’s Association strike” (S&P Global). “‘Letting the ILA (strike) play out would be a disaster politically,’ said a US beef buyer. A transportation specialist said, ‘(there is) no way that the union is going to put the Democrats in such a bad position that would allow them to lose the election.’ According to industry sources, it appears that marine terminal operators and ocean carriers, specifically the Mediterranean Shipping Company, are prepared for the strike to begin. The Mediterranean Shipping Company is seen as a bellwether in the global shipping market, sources said. Following the strike, a motion will be presented by the group to force the ILA to return to work for 45 days. If no resolution is reached within that period, another motion will be filed to extend the working period. In this scenario, an arbitrator will be appointed by the court within the time frame to help develop a resolved contract. Although beef and other meats are not the largest volume cargo received in East Coast ports, it is likely to be the most affected, as refrigerated containers and the generator sets that power them are in short supply, according to industry specialists. Companies with freight in reefers will want freight removed in advance of the strike and all at once, further limiting the supply, said the transportation specialist. Most US beef buyers have not changed their buying habits or shipping plans. So far, beef prices have not changed in response to the possibility of strike.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing announces broad rolling furloughs keyed to Machinists strike” (Seattle Times). “Boeing on Wednesday said it will institute furloughs for a large number of U.S.-based workers for the duration of the Machinists strike that began last week. Employees will take one week of furlough every four weeks on a rolling basis as long as the strike lasts, President and CEO Kelly Ortberg wrote in a message sent to all Boeing workers. Ortberg said he and his leadership team will take a ‘commensurate pay reduction’ for the duration of the strike. He didn’t specify the pay cut amount. Boeing and the Machinists are meeting Wednesday to continue negotiations after restarting talks Tuesday. The Machinists called Tuesday a frustrating day and said the two sides weren’t close in reaching a deal.” • “Commensurate”? Like zero?

Tech: “23andMe sees independent board directors quit en masse” (TechCrunch). “23andMe, the personal genomics company, went public in early 2021 via a merger with a blank check company that valued it at $3.5 billion. Then its fortunes began to sink. Fading interest in DNA kits – 23andMe’s main product – was one driver. So was news last year that hackers stole ancestry data on 6.9 million of its users. CEO and co-founder Anne Wojcicki now reportedly wants to take the 18-year-old company private. After her own proposal to buy it was rebuffed by its board in July, she was given time to wangle another deal. But its independent directors announced Tuesday evening they’ve lost faith that another proposal is coming, adding that because of Wojcicki’s ‘concentrated voting power,’ they’re done, effective immediately. The company’s market cap closed the day at $173 million. Losing its glittering board – which included Sequoia Capital’s Roelof Botha and YouTube CEO Neal Mohan, among five others – will likely drive its shares down further. One question is whether a shareholder lawsuit might follow.” • That’s a damned shame. Wojcicki was once married to Sergey Brin.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 57 Greed (previous close: 54 Neutral) (CNN). One week ago: 39 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 18 at 1:46:09 PM ET.

Gallery

Liberty leading the people:

Health

What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger, except not:

Class Warfare

“Resurgent Unions Flex Muscle at Boeing, Stellantis and East Coast Ports” (Reuters). “Across the United States, labor unions are striking, threatening strikes and asserting their clout in ways that haven’t been seen in decades. Major ports on the East Coast, Boeing, and automaker Stellantis are all engaged in current or potential labor actions.” • And hopefully negotiating all their contracts to end on May 1, 2028.

“Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs jailed by judge after sex trafficking indictment” (Associated Press). ” Sean “Diddy” Combs headed to jail Tuesday to await trial in a federal sex trafficking case that accuses him of presiding over a sordid empire of sexual crimes protected by blackmail and shocking acts of violence. The music mogul is charged with racketeering conspiracy and sex trafficking. The indictment against him lists allegations that go back to 2008. He’s accused of inducing female victims and male sex workers into drugged-up, sometimes dayslong sexual performances dubbed ‘Freak Offs.’… The Bad Boy Records founder is accused of sexually abusing and using physical force toward women and getting his personal assistants, security and household staff to help him hide it all. Prosecutors say he also tried to bribe and intimidate witnesses and victims to keep them quiet.” • Combs pleaded innocent.

“Diddy trolled by 50 Cent AGAIN over viral ‘1000 baby oil bottles’ claims in rapper’s shock indictment after arrest” (Daily Mail). • As so often with the Daily Mail, the headline says it all.

“Diddy’s arrest for sex trafficking sends shockwaves through music industry with ‘at least five execs’ at record labels worried” (Daily Mail) • As above. Because (from March)–

“Diddy’s Homes Reportedly Fitted With Hidden Cameras In Every Room” (Blast). Maybe all the super-rich do this. Why not? More: “The rapper has been accused of fitting his home with multiple hidden cameras and then using the footage to allegedly blackmail party attendees… According to court documents filed by Diddy’s former employee, Rodney’ Lil Rod’ Jones, the rapper purportedly installed multiple hidden cameras in his properties located in Los Angeles and on Star Island. Those cameras supposedly captured alleged disturbing footage of his guests including “celebrities, athletes, politicians, international dignitaries, and music label executives.” • Hoo boy. I wonder if Mossad has these tapes too. Kidding!

“United States of America vs. SEAN COMBS a/k/a “Puff Daddy,” a/k/a “P. Diddy”, a/k/a “PD, a/k/a “Love” (PDF) (United States District Court, Southern District of New York). The indictment. And from August–

👉🏿 “The Domination Tour” (Maureen Tkacik, Prospect). The deck: “Four decades of intensifying corporate concentration turned the music industry into a wasteland of institutionalized control and abuse. Are antitrust enforcers ready to reckon with that?” Much detail on the Britney Spears conservatorship, “some of the tawdriest episodes of institutionalized abuse to the uppermost echelons of corporate America.” Tkacik comments:

I didn’t have time to aggregate photos of all Diddy’s “friends.” He had a lot! Among them:

News of the Wired

A “Great Ball Contraption” (apparently a genre big in Japan):

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CF:

CF writes: From the Conservatory Garden in Central Park, NYC. like the Abutilon leaves, which look like maps!”