Eve is here. The link feature has only covered a small portion of last year’s extreme weather events. Despite devastating storms like Helen and Milton occupying headline status, extreme heat waves (new records for daily and monthly maximum temperatures, high overnight temperatures), along with epic flooding caused by the rainforest Articles about withstanding (records of, new measurements of ocean storm surge) have been published on an almost endemic level. Continuing rain. Both dryness and flooding can reduce agricultural production, resulting in higher prices, hardship, and potential shortages in some areas. But economic forecasting simply ignores real world events “right in front of us.”
Keep in mind that if voters in the United States reject Democrats, one of the reasons is that they are still affected by huge increases in food prices, even if inflation has slowed. Please stay. In the UK, Government is cutting winter fuel subsidies. The poorest pensioners will still benefit, but those just above them will not, and many experts warn their situation is precarious. How will they and others fare if they, too, are hit by rising food costs?
Richard Murphy points out that economic models ignore the fact that it is clear that the UK faces serious agricultural production problems over the next year and possibly even longer. are.
And we must not forget that food shortages and deprivation can cause political turmoil. At the time, Nomura created a model of household fuel and food costs relative to average incomes across the Middle East. As the magazine predicted, Arab Spring uprisings were more likely to occur in countries where the cost of basic survival was higher than typical living standards, and they did.
That said, macroeconomic models are not rigidly prescribed.
Written by Richard Murphy, Adjunct Professor of Accounting Practice, University of Sheffield Management School, Director of Corporate Accountability Network, Member of Finance for the Future LLP, Director of Tax Research LLP. It was first published in funding the future
Yesterday, the Guardian reported:
Last winter’s heavy rains hit production of key crops such as wheat and oats, leaving England with its second-worst harvest on record and raising concerns about next year.
For staple crops, England’s wheat harvest is estimated to be 10 million tonnes (21%) lower than in 2023, according to an analysis of the latest government data by the Energy and Climate Information Unit (ECIU).
While the Treasury Department fixates on spreadsheets and cities confuse economic activity with private equity exploitation, the real world on which we all actually depend is experiencing a crisis as a result of climate change. Masu.
Britain’s environment is in crisis. And next year isn’t going to be any better. Living in a heavily agricultural area, I can tell you that the rains of the past few weeks have wreaked havoc on next year’s plantings on flooded soil. The flood inundation system around here is already very high. There’s about a meter left, but I’ve never seen it higher. And this is October, not March.
This photo was taken last weekend at Welney Wildlife Reserve in the Swamp. The signpost should now be 3 meters above the water, but it is not. For a while, no one will be walking next to that “drain.”
For decades, in our pursuit of economic gain, we have ignored economic realities. We won’t be able to do that for very long. It will come back to attack us hard.
And just for the record, in reality, inflation No matter what Andrew Bailey thinks, changing interest rates won’t change that fact at all. People need to be fed. They must be fed. They cannot survive with high interest rates that only make life harder for those most affected.
It’s time for economists to start walking around and realizing that there’s a world beyond their numbers, and that there are real problems out there.
