by calculated risk 2024/10/24 10:00:00 AM
census bureau report New home sales in September reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738,000.
The figures for the previous three months have been revised downward.
Sales of new single-family homes in September 2024 hit a record high Seasonally adjusted annual rate 738,000according to estimates jointly released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent higher than August’s revised figure of 709,000 and 6.3 percent higher than the September 2023 forecast of 694,000.
Emphasis added
Click on the graph to see a larger image.
The first graph shows the relationship between new home sales and recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales were near pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows the months of supply of new housing.
The number of months of supply in September decreased from 7.9 months in August to 7.6 months.
The highest supply ever was 12.2 months in January 2009, and the lowest ever was 3.3 months in August 2020.
This is well above the upper end of the normal range (about 4-6 months of supply is normal).
“At the end of September, new home sales (seasonally adjusted) were 470,000 units, equivalent to 7.6 months of supply at current sales rates.”
Sales exceeded the forecast of 710,000 SAAR, but sales for the previous three months have been revised downward. I’ll eat more later today.
