Ontario winter wheat growers are holding their breath and praying as what could be a record crop nears its final weeks of fruiting and harvest.
Peter Johnson, an agronomist at RealAgriculture, says a key yield indicator he looks at is the number of seeds in each spikelet. He points out that growers have shared photos on X that show seeds in four of the five flowers on each spikelet. “Typically you’ll only see one or two seeds,” Johnson says with a smile.
If this trend continues across the wheat crop, Johnson calculates, seed numbers could rise to more than 40 seeds per plant, up to as much as 45. “And if the seeds are a decent size, wheat yields could be very good.”
I think the #3 seed is now a sure bet and the #4 seed is developing pretty well and is on the verge of pushing the #5 seed aside??Joufflings? ?Wheat Pete? ?Crop Dock 2Another half inch of rain last night will be more than enough to get this crop to full maturity. pic.twitter.com/RzN7LPfYB9
— Adam Pfeffer (@AdamJPfeffer) June 9, 2024
The longer the grain fill period, the better the chances of a good harvest. Dale Cowan, agronomic strategy manager for AGRIS cooperative, reports that they are tracking the number of growing degree days in two fields that flowered on May 24. He calculates that the grain fill period in these fields is heading towards 35 days, with the potential to reach up to 38 days.
The longer grain fill period is good news for Johnson, who said he has never seen a grain fill period in Ontario go beyond 36 days.
However, the crop has not yet gone into storage, and there is always the possibility that weather or environmental factors could delay the harvest. Hot weather is expected to arrive next week, which will have a significant impact on grain swelling. “Increasing average daily temperatures shortens grain swelling,” Cowan noted.
Johnson is also concerned about the impact of Fusarium head blight and the potential for deoxynivalenol (DON) to be present in crops, and believes growers who plant varieties with the Fusarium resistance gene Fhb1 may be lulled into a false sense of security, especially as wet weather continues to increase the risk of disease.
“When it rains every two or three days, that puts a lot of pressure on them,” Johnson says. “Just because they have Fhb1 doesn’t mean they’re going to accumulate less DON. It should help, but DON accumulation is a separate issue from its spread in the head.”
Johnson and Cowan agree that high levels of DON could become an issue in post-harvest elevators if weather and environmental conditions continue and disease risk remains high. Cowan says high levels of DON are a concern for end users, and elevators will be testing instead of relying solely on visual assessments.
