By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Bird Song of the Day
Common Nightingale, Potez Kovilovo – Beljarica (područje projekta “Srpsko-kineski industrijski park Mihajlo Pupin“), Beograd, Serbia.
In Case You Might Miss…
(1) Keystone Cops at Trump’s assassination attempt.
(2) Unelecting Biden: The effort continues privately.
(3) Republican National Convention and J.D. Vance
Look for the Helpers
“Colorado’s ham radio operators are ready for an emergency — just don’t call them amateurs” (Colorado Sun). “There is nothing amateur about the gathering in the remote corner of South Park. Part of the an American Radio Relay League’s annual Field Day — a nationwide rally of licensed ham radio hobbyists that started in 1933 — the circled collection of high-tech camper trailers and vans is bustling with technical wizards training for that day when they are called into service. It could be a tornado, flood, hailstorm or wildfire. Maybe an earthquake or solar storm has knocked out satellite communication. Maybe rural emergency service folks need help with a big event, like a mountain bike or running race. Whatever the reason, there are 19,629 licensed amateur radio operators in Colorado — almost 750,000 in the U.S. — who are trained and ready to keep critical communications flowing. ‘For most amateur radio groups, it’s about serving our communities,’ said Desiree Baccus — call sign N3DEZ — with the Rocky Mountain HAM Radio club, a nonprofit that maintains a network of radio-transmitting equipment across Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming. ‘There is only so much local sheriffs can do in small towns and you will see amateur radio operators stepping in to fill the gaps as volunteers to help as a second service to our emergency management professionals.” • Too bad about the licensing requirements…..
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
“Exclusive: County Officer Warned Of Seeing Man With Rangefinder Before Trump Was Shot” (Beaver Countian). “A Beaver County police officer warned a command center of seeing a man with a rangefinder before former president Donald Trump was shot on Saturday. The officer had also warned the man was scoping out the roof of the building he was stationed in as a counter-sniper, and that the man returned with a backpack before ultimately scaling the building…. Contrary to reports in several national news outlets, officers say the building just outside of a security perimeter established by Secret Service was in fact occupied by law enforcement. ‘There were three counter-snipers located in the building that the shooter eventually used to take shots at Trump,’ one officer told BeaverCountian.com…. A security operations plan had placed each of the three counter-snipers inside of the building looking out of windows toward the rally, with none stationed on its roof. Due to a lack of manpower, the men did not have spotters assigned to them, as would be standard operating procedure.” • And why were the agents not on the roof? One theory:
Ahh, haven’t seen this confirmed but it’d explain a lot. Police snipers were supposed to be on roof but decided it was too hot so they moved inside building. Deserting an assigned post is bad, what’s worse is SS didn’t know cops had noped out, they thought he was a police sniper. https://t.co/4o5qL1rtuY
— Carlos Mucha (@mucha_carlos) July 16, 2024
“Three snipers were stationed inside building used in Trump assassination attempt” (CBS). “One of the snipers inside saw Thomas Matthew Crooks outside and looking up at the roof, observing the building and disappearing, a local law enforcement officer tells CBS News. Crooks came back, sat down and looked at his phone. At that point, one of the snipers took a picture of him. Crooks took out a rangefinder and the sniper radioed to the command post. Crooks disappeared again and then came back a third time with a backpack. The snipers called in with information that he had a backpack and said he was walking towards the back of the building…. By the time other officers came for backup, (Crooks) had climbed on top of the building and was positioned above and behind the snipers inside the building, the officer said.” • Looks like the Beaver Countian broke this story, and then CBS advanced it… (Pennsylvania still has a lot of local papers, interestingly.)
“Three Snipers Were Inside Building Trump Rally Shooter Fired From, Reports Say” (Forbes). A round-up. Includes: “According to local TV station WPXI, officers on the ground first spotted Crooks nearly 30 minutes before he fired at Trump and the rally-goers.”
“How Security Went So Wrong at Trump’s Rally” (New York Magazine). Former agent and University of New Haven criminal-justice professor Robert McDonald: “Any time the Secret Service goes on a protective visit, whether it’s the president, vice-president, or former presidents, the agents cannot do what they do by themselves. So the Secret Service is very good at liaison-ing and working with other partners. But they are the developers of the security plan and get buy-in and cooperation from state, local, and other federal authorities to implement the plan. The bottom line is that the buck stops with the Secret Service. We train and train and train for this type of thing and hope we never have to utilize what we train. There were some positives with the way that the team reacted, but I think, obviously, the main point of contention here is going to be ‘How did we miss that shooter on the roof? How did that happen?’ And that’s going to take some serious investigation by Congress, I think. And there may have to be, and rightly so, some accountability on the part of the Secret Service.”
“Mystery Over Trump’s Diagnosis and Treatment After Assassination Attempt” (The Daily Beast). “So far, the Trump camp has not disclosed what kinds of tests the former president underwent, how he was treated and for what types of injuries, and if there will be follow-ups.”
“We Should Have Seen the Attempted Assassination Coming” (Lawfare) • Oh, Lawfare. Are you seriously telling me you never gamed it out?
2024
Less than four months to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP
Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.
* * * The DNC
“D.N.C. Aims to Push Biden Toward Nomination Next Week, Despite Doubts” (New York Times). “Leaders of the Democratic National Committee are moving swiftly to confirm President Biden as his party’s presidential nominee by the end of July, according to four people briefed on the matter who insisted on anonymity to discuss the sensitive deliberations. The move would formalize Mr. Biden as the nominee at a moment when Democrats are torn over whether he should run again after his poor debate performance…. The process will effectively begin when the rules committee of the Democratic National Convention meets on a video call at 11 a.m. on Friday, followed by another party group on Sunday. All of the more than 4,000 delegates are expected to begin casting their ballots as soon as Monday, a process that is likely to take about a week. After that, the committee is expected to quickly hold the roll call, a tradition that typically occurs on the convention floor but is being held virtually this year. The rules committee is a body of more than 180 delegates led by Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Leah Daughtry, a veteran party official. A majority of its members have deep ties to Mr. Biden and were vetted for their loyalty to him, making it unlikely that his nomination will face significant dissent…. The procedure would not change the reality of Mr. Biden’s position: Under the party’s rules, he can be replaced as the nominee only if he agrees to step aside and release his delegates.”
Electeds
“Did Trump’s shooting save Biden’s nomination?” (Vox). “The rebellion against President Biden that was brewing among some Democrats since the president’s debate performance has vanished from the headlines, and some are speculating that it may be over for good…. After Biden gave a press conference Thursday evening in which he answered reporters’ questions for nearly an hour, the promised flood of defections didn’t materialize; it was more like a trickle. His competent performance there seemed to freeze things in place, leaving Democrats at an impasse going into the weekend. Then, Saturday evening, a shooting at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, left one rallygoer dead and injured Trump. And it had a few consequences for Biden. First, it changed the subject…. Second, it’s generally helpful for a president in crisis to do things that are ‘presidential’…. Third and most controversial, some Democrats’ instinctive reaction to Trump’s shooting has been to assume that he’ll now win the presidency and to conclude, therefore, that a messy and difficult push to replace Biden isn’t worthwhile, since Biden’s replacement would also likely lose.” But: “That chain of logic is pretty obviously flawed. It’s far too early to write off an election that is months away, so this may be mainly a justification for inertia and inaction that key Democrats already were inclined toward. But the upshot is clear: It helps Biden hang on.”
Democratic Strategists
“Private efforts to nudge Biden to step aside continue” (CNN). “The public calls from Democrats asking President Joe Biden to bow out of the presidential race have quieted in recent days, but private efforts to nudge the president and his top aides continue, several Democratic sources told CNN. Among the efforts, these sources say, are repeated memos from a seasoned and respected Democratic pollster, Stanley Greenberg, sharing his take that Biden is on track to lose the election – and in a way that does deep damage to other Democratic candidates. ‘Lose everything,’ is how one Democrat described a polling memo Greenberg sent to Biden’s inner circle in recent days. ‘Devastating,’ was the one word answer of a second Democrat close to the White House who is familiar with the Greenberg memos. These sources said Greenberg has sent several memos over the past two weeks since the president’s devastating debate performance, analyzing internal polling he asserts shows the president’s position continues to deteriorate because Americans overwhelmingly do not see him as up to serving four more years.”
* * * Republican National Convention: “Behind the Curtain: Why J.D.” (Axios). Trumpworld insiders tell us these were key factors in sealing the deal for Vance: youth & vigor; smart; american dream bio; storyteller; smooth talker; new money. And: “Carlson, who has a prime-time speaking slot at the convention, told us the logic for Vance ‘is that he doesn’t secretly hate Trump, as all the rest of them do. He fundamentally agrees with Trump. That’s precisely why neocon donors (who want more aid for Ukraine) fear him.’ Vance also had the most chemistry with Trump, who got to know him after Don Jr. pushed his dad to endorse Vance for Senate in 2022. Trump has genuine affection for Vance — rare for Trump, and a real change from his reasoning for picking Mike Pence in 2016.” • Hmm.
Republican National Convention: “Who is JD Vance? Things to know about Donald Trump’s pick for vice president” (Associated Press). “Trump has also complimented Vance’s beard, saying he ‘looks like a young Abraham Lincoln.’” • Wowsers.
Republican National Convention: “Europe reacts to J.D. Vance as Trump’s VP pick: ‘This is a disaster for Ukraine’” (Politico). • Europe should be worrying about how it’s going to get cheap gas for heating when AMOC flips, not Ukraine.
* * * Republican National Convention: “I Expected the Republican National Convention to Be Dark and Tense. It’s Something Else Entirely” (Slate). “Almost instantly, I realized I had read the vibe all wrong. The law enforcement and volunteers working the entryway had me through a bag scan and a metal detector in seconds. The mood was not tense—it was almost chipper. Once inside, I was again surprised by the jubilance of the many conventiongoers. Red hats crowned smiling faces as attendees giddily rushed toward the arena and secured a place in line to get inside and escape the heat…. I moved through the crowd, and the mood only got more jubilant. One man sported an elephant hat fitted with a long trunk that extended and stuck out over his head. I spotted a pair of golden Trump shoes, and several people wore shirts with photos of Trump’s face printed all over them. One woman sported a large top hat with an image of Abraham Lincoln next to Trump pulling his shirt open to reveal a Superman S beneath it… There were more MAGA celebrities inbound, with gaggles of giddy convention attendees lined up to take selfies with them. And as I continued to navigate the convention on its first day, the excitement remained in the air. People dutifully condemned Democrats—who were described as all-powerful but also somehow feeble and inept—and the shooting if I asked. But each time I got the slight sense I was ruining the vibe a little bit. More than once, people around me broke into chants of ‘USA,’ with laughter and the easy confidence of people who think they have this thing in the bag. Whatever horrors the weekend had brought, they were ready to party.”
Republican National Convention: “Conservatives Slam RNC For ‘Giving a Primetime Speaking Slot to a Pro-Abortion Feminist’ Who ‘Praised Satanism’ (Mediate). • Excellent. But why wasn’t “OnlyFans model” in the headline?
* * * Biden (D): “Full Replay: President Biden Interview With NBC’s Lester Holt” (transcript) (RealClearPolitics). “For example, you know, the January 6th — you know, the attack on the Capitol, the — I — I — Lester, I got in this race early on in 2020 — for the 2020 race. I wasn’t gonna run again because I’d lost my son. I didn’t — you know? And — until I watched what happened in Charlottesville, Virginia. Those folks coming out of the woods with torches, carrying swastikas, singing the same Nazi bile that was accompanied by this Ku Klux Klan and a young woman was killed. And — and it was a bystander. And — the president — then president was asked, ‘What do you think?’ He said, ‘The very fine people on both sides.’ Not fine people on both sides. No excuse. Zero.” • This is lowering the temperature? On the durable “very fine people” see Snopes here.
Biden (D): “Most Voters Want Biden To Step Down, Oldest Voters Least Concerned” (RealClearPolitics). “In a CBS News/YouGov poll published last Monday, voters were asked whether Biden should drop out of the race and allow another Democrat to vie for the title of the party’s nominee. Most voters (64%) believe it is time for a new Democratic candidate. Of the 1,130 registered voters surveyed, only 20% of respondents under 30 believed Biden exclusively had the appropriate cognitive health to serve as president. (The younger a voter was, the more likely they were to believe neither candidate had adequate mental fitness. 37% of voters under 30 felt that neither candidate had appropriate cognition, as did 35% of voters aged 30-44 and 28% of 45-64 year-olds.) The age group least concerned with the cognition of the 2024 major party candidates are voters 65 and up, of whom only 19% believed neither candidate had appropriate cognitive health.”
* * * Kennedy (I): “Trump met with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to seek endorsement” (Politico). “Former President Donald Trump met this morning in Milwaukee with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to discuss the possibility of the independent candidate endorsing the Republican nominee, according to multiple people familiar with the huddle. Asked about the meeting and a potential endorsement, Kennedy denied that he plans to drop out of the race. ‘Yes, Mr. Kennedy met with President Trump today to discuss national unity, and he hopes to meet with leaders of the Democratic Party as well,’ Kennedy campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear said in a statement. ‘And no he is not dropping out of the race. He is the only pro-environment, pro-choice, anti-war candidate who beats Donald Trump in head-to-head polls.’”
Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. Apologizes After Video of Call With Trump Leaks Showing Private Comments: ‘We’re Gonna Win’” (Mediaite). Trump on vax: “Something’s wrong with that whole system. And it’s the doctors, you find. Remember I said I want to do small doses? Small doses. When you feed a baby, Bobby, a vaccination that is like 38 different vaccines, and it looks like it’s meant for a horse, not a… you know 10 pound or 20 pound baby. It looks like you’re giving you should be giving a horse this. And do you ever see the size of it, right? You know, it’s just massive. And then you see the baby all of a sudden starting to change radically. I’ve seen it too many times. And then you hear that it doesn’t have an impact, right? But you and I talked about that a long time ago.” • Kennedy apologizes:
When President Trump called me I was taping with an in-house videographer. I should have ordered the videographer to stop recording immediately. I am mortified that this was posted. I apologize to the president.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 16, 2024
* * * “Get a Grip, Democrats. You Can Still Win This” (Washington Monthly). “(P)olitical professionals should know better than to predict defeat four months before Election Day, especially when polls remain close. The ups and downs of the 2024 race should have already reminded us that an event today can be superseded by an event tomorrow. Not two months ago, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, and Biden was inching up in the polls. Just before the debate, Biden took a brief lead in the FiveThirtyEight national average and nearly did the same in RealClearPolitics. Then, the post-debate panic over Biden’s mental acuity knocked him back two or three points in those trackers. It is trite but true to note that a lot can happen over the next three months. We can’t be clairvoyant, but optimism is warranted. Israel and Hamas may soon agree to a ceasefire. Biden’s border crackdown may continue to drive down the number of illegal crossings and relieve pressure on municipalities. Perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates and buoy public perception of the growing economy. Many Democrats are understandably nervous about how Biden will perform in the campaign’s final weeks, but let’s not forget that Trump may do plenty to rankle swing voters, as he has throughout his political career. It’s not true that Trump always ‘gets away with it.’ If he did, Republicans would have had better electoral performances in 2018, 2020, and 2022.”
“Stop Pretending You Know How This Will End” (The Atlantic). “Let me offer another interpretation of Saturday’s shocking event: Nobody knows anything. Anyone who claims to have already figured out precisely how Trump’s bloody ear will influence the 2024 election or strain the nation’s civic bonds is lying to you and to themselves. The history of failed assassination attempts in the United States and abroad offers only the murkiest indication of the path forward. “Would-be assassins are chaos agents more than agents that direct the course of history,” says Benjamin Jones, an economist at Northwestern University who has studied the effects of political assassination attempts over the past 150 years. These liminal figures—light-years from fame, yet inches from infamy—tend to change the world in minuscule ways, if they change anything at all. The legacy of failed presidential assassination attempts in the U.S. should temper expectations that this past weekend was a world-historical event. Theodore Roosevelt was shot in 1912 campaigning for president in Milwaukee and, with Paul Bunyan heroism, continued his speech after being struck; he still lost. During a three-week span in 1975, two women tried and failed to shoot Gerald Ford. He lost his upcoming election, too. When Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981, a brief spike in his approval rating disappeared within a matter of months.”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
(1) (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Worse than two weeks ago.
(2) (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
(3) (CDC Variants) LB.1 coming up on the outside.
(4) (ER) This is the best I can do for now. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
(5) (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is compatible with a wastewater decrease, but still not a good feeling .(The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
(6) (Hospitalization: CDC). This is the best I can do for now. Note the assumption that Covid is seasonal is built into the presentation, which in fact shows that Covid is not seasonal. At least data for the entire pandemic is presented.
(7) (Walgreens) Still going up! (Because there is data in “current view” tab, I think white states here have experienced “no change,” as opposed to have no data.)
(8) (Cleveland) Still going up!
(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
(10) (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.
(11) Deaths low, but positivity up.
(12) Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Housing: “United States NAHB Housing Market Index” (Trading Economics). “The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US eased by one point from the previous month to 42 in July of 2024, the lowest in the current year, and below market expectations of 44.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 63 Greed (previous close: 61 Greed) (CNN). One week ago: 52 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jul 16 at 12:35:46 PM ET • Big swing to Greed post Trump assassination attempt.
Musical Interlude
Tragedy narrowly averted:
Photo Book
“How the Rise of the Camera Launched a Fight to Protect Gilded Age Americans’ Privacy” (Smithsonian). “The same year Kodak cameras hit the marketplace, the Brooklyn Daily Eagle reported that Anthony Comstock—the anti-obscenity crusader after whom the 1873 Comstock Act is named—had arrested an amateur photographer for selling manually photoshopped pictures that placed ‘the heads of innocent women on the undraped bodies of other females.’ In 1890, a mugshot photographer for the New York Police Department was fired for selling copies of the mugshots to arrestees themselves—an arrangement the New York Times described as a ‘lucrative business.’ Boundless fascination with photographs created a bustling economy. People bought and collected random photographs from dry goods stores, general junk shops, vending machines and even cigarette packs. Demand was so robust that amateurs were just as able to sell to this market as professionals,” • Sounds like AI.
News of the Wired
“Are you guilty of tsundoku?” (Travel between the pages). “The Japanese word tsundoku means buying books and letting them pile up unread. The word dates back to the very beginning of modern Japan, the Meiji era (1868–1912) and has its origins in a pun. Tsundoku, which literally means reading pile, is written in Japanese as 積ん読. Tsunde oku means to let something pile up and is written 積んでおく. Some wag around the turn of the century swapped out that oku (おく) in tsunde oku for doku (読) – meaning to read. Then since tsunde doku is hard to say, the word got mushed together to form tsundoku.” • I am totally guilty. But just think of buying a book as taking out an option….
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