With the Trump assassination attempt all over the place and the footage and speeches from the Republican convention wrapping up, Biden’s future, or lack thereof, is back in focus. Many forecasters had predicted that the failure of Trump’s death blow would give Biden a chance to breathe, and that the clock would run out in Biden’s favor, ultimately forcing him to stick to his position.
On paper, only Biden (or God) can unseat Biden, the Democrats’ choice, but the reality is more complicated. In the United States, TV advertising costs are so high that an unfunded or insufficiently funded candidate is effectively a non-candidate. Numerous public and private reports of a big donor revolt were and remain the only thing that could move the seemingly unmoved Biden. The actions of party leaders are simply a reflection of that.
A few days ago, I told Lambert that I didn’t see how Biden could survive if the rich kept withholding donations en masse, and that should have been a marker. There are simply too many people, from fundraisers to consultants to legislative staffers to other servile activists, who depend on the Democratic team to survive. Losing the presidency is one thing, but falling into a state of collapse that severely reduces the party’s viability is another. Too many college tuition dollars depend on the Democratic Party remaining a credible political force.
And this is before you take into account that, as we’ve noted repeatedly, spy whisperers like David Ignatius have been saying explicitly, even loudly, for quite some time that Biden should step aside. Opposing the CIA is, in many ways, not a pro-life move.
I hope that those familiar with the party’s machinations will correct my assumptions and add details as necessary, but the extremely low likelihood of a Democrat winning the presidency in 2024 is a problem that cannot be ignored. Lambert links to a report in Puck that, at yet another Biden confidence-building session, insiders did just the opposite, with only the shameless Debbie Wasserman-Schultz claiming Biden performed well. Those in the party with functioning brain cells or enough survival instincts know that, even if they must do their best otherwise. Biden continues to crumble. No amount of piggy makeup can significantly improve Harris’ popularity. And there is not enough runway for the aspirants to establish presidential-level support.
As most readers probably know, with the Democrats’ prospects bleak, their best bet is to try and succeed in taking back the House. This would mean redirecting much of the money currently flowing to the top candidates to the House races. With Biden in the race and controlling the presidential campaign finances, that simply isn’t possible. Can Biden be persuaded to step down and redirect some (a lot!) of the money to the lower-ranked candidates? It’s easy to imagine that Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Party’s best 11D chess player and someone who is personally very attached to the Democratic Party’s position in the House, is sharply focused on this and related funding issues.
First, let’s look at some of the headline news that suddenly finds Biden in hot water again.
This campaign to remove Biden from office seemed to be gaining some momentum before Biden announced that he had contracted COVID again and would be suspending his campaign activities for the next few days. By official tally, Biden had now contracted COVID for the third time. A widely reported study found that a third infection had a 38% chance of developing long-term COVID. Perhaps COVID was an agent of the God who Biden claimed must be removed to stop him from running for president.
This contest is so hotly contested, I’m not sure how much sense there is in trying to gauge the situation. What matters is that the trajectory is increasingly unfavorable to Biden, and that a Trump shooting incident (if not a COVID incident) would justify Biden’s withdrawal. Let’s start with the pink paper:
It emerged on Wednesday that congressional Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the top Democrat in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, had privately expressed concerns to Biden.
Another Democratic congressman, Adam Schiff, close to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, expressed “serious concerns” about whether Biden can beat Trump in November and publicly called on the president to “pass the baton.”
CNN reported that Pelosi told Biden that if he continued to fight, it would be difficult for him to win and that doing so could hurt the prospects of other Democrats. Pelosi’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
But the US president remains defiant. A White House spokesman said of Biden’s conversations with Schumer and Jeffries: “The president conveyed to both leaders that he is their party’s nominee, that he intends to win, and that he looks forward to working with them to pass a 100-day package to help working families.”
Sen. Jeffries (R-N.Y.) Hakim met with Biden at the White House on Thursday night, while Sen. Schumer (R-N.Y.) Chuck met with Biden on Saturday in Rehoboth Beach, Del. During the meetings, congressional leaders discussed lawmakers’ concerns that Biden could take away their majority, making it easier for Republicans to pass legislation, according to four people briefed on the talks and speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the private discussions.
In another one-on-one conversation, someone close to Biden directly told the president he should drop out of the race, saying it was the only way to preserve his legacy and save the country from a Trump presidency, the person said. Biden adamantly disagreed, responding that he was the best candidate to beat Donald Trump.
President Biden has in recent days been open to hearing arguments about why he should not seek reelection…
Democrats said Biden has shown no signs of changing his mind about continuing the campaign, but has outlined worrying new polling data and questioned Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning.
The reports suggest that Biden, at least privately, is taking a more tolerant stance than he did last week, when he lashed out at several House Democrats who had called for him to resign.
One person close to the president said it would be wrong to say he is open to the idea of withdrawal but is “open to listening,” but stressed that there are no immediate signs Biden is about to change course.
So at the very least, a weakening in the polls could weaken Biden’s resolve.
Either way, the big conflicting factor is that Democrats may have lost many of their former big supporters, not just of Biden but of the candidates in general. In other words, a bad outcome is already priced in, and Democrats’ efforts to turn the tide may be too little, too late.
I have received numerous unofficial reports that companies run by former Democrat supporters have moved all of their operations out of New York due to the Trump tax lawsuits. The hush-money lawsuits have fueled anti-Democrat sentiment among the super-rich. Since when has it become illegal to give money or services to your own campaign? The judge’s failure to explain election law to the jury and to allow Trump’s lawyers to present witnesses to dispute the prosecution’s repeated and unfounded insinuations about election law abuses exerted considerable influence in what many see as an indefensible verdict.1
Similarly, I am receiving informal reports that leading Democrat supporters are turning their backs not just on the Biden campaign, but possibly on the entire candidate. The most systematic sightings come from IM Doc, who is extremely wealthy, well-connected, and until recently, very wealthy, with billionaires, CEOs, and operatives as patients. Here are some excerpts from recent reports, starting in mid-June before the debate:
I have just heard from two Jewish descendants of so-called Hollywood businessmen (not celebrities) that they and their families have withdrawn all financial support for Biden. They both give a lot of money to Trump and intend to vote for him. The celebrities are saying much the same thing, though less vociferously. They will tell me as a friend, but they would never say it out loud.
Since the end of June, i.e. after the debate:
There was a big party today. There were a lot of knowledgeable politicians there, both Democrats and Republicans.
Official party polls show that Trump has gained between 2 and 5 points since Thursday in 13 states. It’s unclear whether they are battleground states. They also show that Trump’s chances of winning have increased in Virginia and Minnesota. Trump is also much closer in Washington state, Oregon, New Jersey and Colorado. These are party polls, not general polls.
Biden’s approval ratings in Asian and Jewish communities are plummeting for the Democrats. His approval ratings in the Latino community are plummeting, and his approval ratings among blacks are not doing so well. The Democrats don’t have any good ideas to appeal to any of these groups. “People are angry,” “The Democratic coalition we’ve relied on is ripping apart and shrinking before our eyes in real time,” “Inflation is nasty,” “Kamala is an albatross around the party’s neck,” and their response is brilliant.
These people are literally shitting their pants. It was already a big problem before the debate, but now it’s gotten worse. It seems some of them are finally realizing that the lies have caught up with them.
Earlier this week:
This morning, two billionaires and one Hollywood actor. All three are former Biden supporters.
One Billionaire Will Support Trump –
The remaining two have completely cut off funding to Biden and are now doing nothing. “What a disgrace. I can’t even bring myself to vote.”
Later this week:
The number of billionaires who are switching sides to Trump has been a big surprise to me. They literally tell me about it all the time. Part of my job is to be a “confession mother” and I’m one of the few people they can trust. Their lives are full of poisonous snakes. Almost without exception, they tell me they feel guilty about doing it, but they can’t help it. It’s as if they’re asking permission from me, a regular person.
So even if Biden does get COVID-19, which seems like the fastest way to hand the reins over to another candidate, given his ego, it’s not clear that the Democratic team can save the federal election. The “Orange Man is Bad” rhetoric is losing steam with too many critical audiences. To make matters worse, the disgust that would have been focused on Trump seems increasingly directed at Biden, at least among his major donors.
____
1 It should not be forgotten that Judge Marchan’s daughter was a Democratic activist. He is reportedly using his father’s case to raise funds.I’ve been told, but haven’t been able to independently verify, that New York’s lowest court (confusingly called the Supreme Court) has 24 justices. Cases are supposed to be assigned randomly. But all three of the New York Trump cases were assigned to Marchan. Get out your calculator. The odds are 0.0072%. That’s not a typo. 1 in 0.000072.
