Bird Song of the Day
Blue Mockingbird
Melanotis caerulesces, Presa Los Zompanties, Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Trump to work the grill at McDonald’s in Philly.
- Michelle stays home.
- Boeing borrows $10 billion, fights off junk status for now, faces break-up.
“Power-company workers get standing ovation during Lightning’s hurricane-delayed home opener” (Orlando Sentinel). “There was a standing ovation late in the second period and it wasn’t for any of the Tampa Bay players. It was for a group of power-company workers from Vancouver who are assisting in recovery efforts. ‘How about the ovation that the Vancouver linemen got when they showed them on the big screen?’ Cooper asked. ‘I’m normally not looking up there a ton but that was a pretty moving moment for me. And it just shows you there’s a lot of good out there. When people come out and help each other it does make you feel good.’” • I’m violating my own guidelines a little bit here, but what the powerline workers are doing is called “mutual assistance,” and I think that’s how the workers see it (sure, overtime no doubt, structured by giant utilities to minimize slack. Nevertheless).
My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than thirty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Suddenly, the Electoral College Is Posing a Problem for Trump” (Slate). “Trump is, ironically, crashing into the same roadblock that has stymied Democrats for decades now: The Electoral College overvalues white votes at the expense of racial minorities, giving white voters considerably more influence over the presidential race…. A few examples drawn from current demographic data: Latinos make up about 40 percent of California’s population, and Trump appears to be making inroads with them there. But there is no chance that this trend will flip the heavily Democratic state toward Trump, so eroding Harris’ edge with California Latinos will not help him reach the White House. Latinos also make up about 40 percent of Texas’ population, yet Trump is essentially certain to carry the Lone Star State already, so additional votes from Texas Latinos won’t matter to him. Florida is an increasingly diverse state, and Trump may win an eye-popping number of nonwhite votes there. But he is overwhelmingly likely to win it no matter what, so this feat would not clinch him a second term. The same dynamic applies to smaller states. Black voters make up about 36 percent of Mississippi’s population, for instance, but winning over some of these voters will not boost Trump’s overall chance of victory because he already has Mississippi locked down. Conversely, Asian Americans make up 10 percent of New Jersey and Washington state, but Harris has both in the bag. So it will be irrelevant to Trump if these Asian American voters defect to him. There are, of course, exceptions to this dynamic: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina all have large numbers of nonwhite voters, and all are swing states. But Harris’ clearest path to victory remains a sweep of the famed tipping-point states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—which historically vote the same way. If she carries this so-called blue wall, along with the single electoral vote of Omaha, Nebraska, she’ll win the whole election. Pennsylvania in particular has emerged as the probable tipping-point state. That’s why Harris and Tim Walz, her vice presidential nominee, are spending the final weeks with a campaign blitz in the Rust Belt. Current polling suggests that winning these states is pretty much mandatory. Any victories in the more diverse Sun Belt will probably be a bonus.” • Entirely anecdotal, but an associate of mine tells me Black women he knows in California absolutely hate Kamala. And white women they know in Milwaukee (Milwaukee proper, not the burbs) absolutely love her (because of her performativity on abortion). One thing: Republicans, like Winston Wolfe, “solve problems” (though you may agree neither with the problem statement nor the solution). Like firing their elites (who then went and turned themselves into Democrats). Or recomposing the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. If fixing the electoral college is to their advantage, they will do it.
* * * Kamala (D): “Harris peppered with questions by Charlamagne tha God’s audience” (The Hill). “Throughout the interview, Harris shared her position on topics such as reparations — which she said she supports studying — building up Black homeownership and the opportunity to grow generational wealth.” “Study”? Oh. More; “Harris released an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” on Monday, but one caller asked her why she didn’t do so sooner and why support for Black men is only sought out during election cycles. ‘I’ve been in this race about 70 days. You can look at all my work before those 70 days to know that this, what I’m talking about right now, is not new and is not for the sake of winning this election,’ Harris responded. ‘This is about a long-standing commitment, including the work that I’ve done as vice president and before, when I was senator.’ Harris’s time as a senator came up at another point in the interview when a caller from Nevada asked what she plans to do to address police brutality and its disproportionate impact on Black Americans. The vice president quickly pointed to her work on the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) during her time in the upper chamber.” • So a bill that never passed is the best Harris can do? “Fighting for,” I suppose….
Kamala (D): “Despite her call to ‘do something’ for Harris, Michelle Obama has yet to hit the campaign trail” (NBC). “With just 20 days until the election, Michelle Obama has worked behind the scenes to boost turnout in key swing states, but she has yet to schedule an official appearance for Harris since the Democratic National Convention. Two people familiar with the matter said she has expressed fresh concerns about security following two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump…. Her low profile stands out after her rousing speech in August at the Democratic National Convention, when she implored members of her party not to get complacent about the November election and repeatedly urged voters to instead ‘do something!’” • So I guess Michelle doesn’t believe Trump is a fascist?
* * * Trump (R): “Donald Trump will ‘work the fry cooker’ at McDonald’s in the Philly area this weekend” (Philadelphia Inquirer). “The former president will make the stop at a McDonald’s in the Philadelphia area, the source said, but the exact location is still unclear…. Trump has continuously claimed that Harris never worked at the fast-food chain, without evidence. He told a campaign crowd in Indiana, Pennsylvania last month that he wanted to work as a fry cook to ‘see how it is.’” • Allow me to hoist once more this insightful comment from alert reader Brian Beijer on August 29:
Now, to (Kamala’s) “I did fries. And then I did the cashier”. Not one of those workers respected the fries and cashier person. There was a begrudging respect for the drive thru cashier because they had to put up with so much grief (this word is out of respect for Yves). But, no one was really respected until they competently handled the grill during a rush hour. You earned real props after handling a bus or unexpected football team visit. I can totally understand why Kamala didn’t put McDonald’s on her resumè`, but I don’t understand why she’s reluctant to mention her experience there…unless she was just a cashier/fry person. Then, she never really got the experience of what working at McDonald’s really offered.
Trump doesn’t even have to be good. All he has to do is actually feel the heat of the grill and show respect for workers by entering their world (and not with performative empathy and bullet points on the Twitter).
Trump (R): “ABC ‘whistleblower’ hoaxster returns with sloppy attempt to frame Tim Walz” (Daily Dot). A saga you may have followed here. “The account previously blew up for its claims it had proof an ABC whistleblower provided Vice President Kamala Harris questions before the presidential debate. (T)he proof never materialized.” • The Daily Dot claims that Trump signal boosted Black Insurrectionist’s claim, but gives no link or embedded Tweet. I can’t find it. Readers?
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: H5N1
“Is it time to freak out about bird flu?” (STAT). “If, however, you are more familiar with the history of this form of bird flu, you might be getting anxious. You might be worried that no one has figured out how one of the infected individuals, who lives in Missouri, contracted H5N1. Or you might recall that the virus has killed half of the 900-plus people known to have been infected with it over the past 27 years. Above all, you might fret that the virus is now circulating in thousands of cows in the U.S., exposing itself to some unknowable portion of the more than 100,000 dairy farmworkers in this country — the consequences of which could be, well, disastrous. Ongoing transmission in cattle means that every day in this country, a virus that is genetically suited to infecting wild birds is being given the opportunity to morph into one that can easily infect mammals. One of these spins of the genetic roulette wheel could result in a version of H5N1 that has a skill that is very much not in our interest to have it gain — the capacity to spread from person to person like seasonal flu viruses do. So is this freak-out time? Or is the fact that this virus still hasn’t cracked the code for easy access to human respiratory systems a sign that it may not have what it takes to do so? The answer, I’m afraid, is not comforting. Science currently has no way of knowing all the changes H5N1 would need to undergo to trigger a pandemic, or whether it is capable of making that leap. (This important article lays out what has been learned so far about some of the mutations H5N1 would have to acquire.) The truth is, when it comes to this virus, we’re in scientific limbo.” • I say let’s double down, roll the dice, and risk everything! But commentary:
Variants: Covid
“SARS-CoV-2 provides an unprecedented opportunity to watch evolution occur in real time” (T. Ryan Gregory, ThreadReader.app). “SARS-CoV-2 provides an unprecedented opportunity to watch evolution occur in real time. It also happens to be showing the pervasiveness of many misconceptions about evolution, even among scientists with limited knowledge of evolutionary biology. Here’s a list and explanations. 🧵”
Misconceptions about evolution on display with SARS-CoV-2:
1. Typological thinking.
2. Variation seen as noise rather than signal.
3. Teleology.
4. Orthogenesis.
5. Not understanding how natural selection works.
6. Ignoring Orgel’s second rule.
7. Myths about human evolution.Worth reading in full. Perhaps evolutionary biologists in the readership will chime in.
| Wastewater | |
| This week(1) CDC October 5 | Last Week(2) CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants (3) CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits(4) CDC October 5 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York(5) New York State, data October 15: | National (6) CDC September 21: |
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| Positivity | |
| National(7) Walgreens October 14: | Ohio(8) Cleveland Clinic October 5: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity(9) CDC September 16: | Variants(10) CDC September 16: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity (11)CDC September 28: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits (12)CDC September 28: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
(1) (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!
(2) (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
(3) (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
(4) (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
(5) (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
(6) (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
(7) (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
(8) (Cleveland) Dropping.
(9) (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
(10) (Travelers: Variants).
(11) Deaths low, positivity down.
(12) Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Manufacturing: “The $25B Boeing Problem” (CEO Today). “Boeing has obtained a credit agreement valued at $10 billion with a group of prime financial institutions, which includes Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan. The Analysts from Bank of America indicate that Boeing is expected to raise between $10 billion and $15 billion in equity to preserve its investment-grade credit rating.”
Manufacturing: “Has Boeing done enough to avoid the credit rating junk yard?” (Financial Times). “Boeing is ‘‘, said a second bondholder. ‘However, .’” Ha ha! No indeed. More: “Our major concern is that the longer this goes, the (more likely it is that) rating agencies will be forced to take some action.’”
Manufacturing: “Daily Memo: Boeing’s Breakup Is Not If, But How And When” (Aviation Week). Worth reading in full, especially if you play the ponies. “To be succinct, large commercial aircraft, and especially narrowbodies, are the future of cash generation.” Which could put Boeing Defense Services on the chopping block. Except: “What about divesting BDS as a whole? Many analysts and consultants see that as unlikely. For starters, the defense and space division obviously is full of enough money-losing fixed-price contracts to make it financially radioactive. Second, it is unlikely the U.S. executive branch would allow another large defense prime to buy it, considering monopoly concerns, while lawmakers could flinch at the prospect of a private equity buyer. Nevertheless, contracts can be sunsetted or sold off individually, and facilities shut down to achieve the same effect.” And: “Regardless of the path, Boeing’s breakup from its current conglomerate state is a safe bet. … (T)he end result could be Boeing more in name only rather than the business model many people think of now.
Manufacturing: “Emirates orders more Boeing 777F freighters, sources say” (Reuters). ” Dubai’s Emirates, one of the world’s largest cargo carriers, is expanding its fleet of Boeing 777F freighters as it plans for a sharp increase in cargo trade, industry sources said. The order for more of the current-generation freighters emerged amid tensions between Emirates and Boeing over separate delays, but pre-dated Boeing’s announcement on Friday that its future 777X jetliner series would slip by another year to 2026…. Analysts note that delays in passenger planes and ongoing demand for dedicated freighter planes are not disconnected. Cirium Ascend head of global consultancy Rob Morris said demand for freighters was being supported by a shortage of passengers planes from Boeing and Airbus, since a large proportion of air freight travels in bellies of passenger jets. Average global cargo yields or unit revenues grew 12% in August, the highest annual increase in over two years, the International Air Transport Association said last week.” • Easier to produce, less risk of one of ’em falls out of the sky. And a reach-around for Boeing on cash flow?
Manufacturing: “After Boeing, Airbus to slash 2,500 jobs amid ongoing financial losses” (Business Standard). “The Netherlands-headquartered Airbus is planning to cut up to 2,500 jobs within its defence and space division. This significant move aims to streamline the European aerospace giant’s operations as it grapples with ongoing financial difficulties. According to reports, these job cuts, which represent around 7 per cent of the division’s workforce, are expected to be implemented by mid-2026. While Airbus has not provided an official statement, the information comes amidst continued struggles in its defence and space sectors. Airbus has been facing substantial losses, particularly within its space systems division, where projects like OneSat have suffered from delays and increasing costs. In response, the company launched a wider efficiency review, code-named ATOM, aimed at addressing operational challenges and identifying cost-saving measures, according to AFP.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) (CNN). One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.
Personal risk assessment:
Could also be titled: “Portrait of a Young Person Entering the Job Market.” I truly dislike the cultural moment that valorizes nutty behavior like this (I can just see “founders” putting stills from it on t-shirts for their employees). Also, I wonder if there was ever snow on that mountain. It looks like the surface of Mars (Hi Elon (waves)).
Gallery
Sending this out to Kelly Ortberg:
‘The Scrapheap.’ (1944) In 1940, Stanley Spencer was commissioned by the War Artist’s Advisory Committee to illustrate the valuable contribution made by the British shipbuilding industry and its workers to the war effort. He was sent by the Ministry of Information to the Kingston… pic.twitter.com/CYFYJS2mcn
— Richard Morris (@ahistoryinart) October 16, 2024
“The Call Is Out for Mass, Simultaneous Strikes in 4 Years” (WorkDay Magazine). “At its annual convention in July, the American Federation of Teachers, which represents 1.8 million members, passed a resolution titled, ‘Supporting The UAW’s Call To Align Contract Expirations For May 1.’ …. This union is not alone. The American Postal Workers Union also passed a supportive resolution at its national convention in July. And Brandon Mancilla, the elected UAW Region 9A director, told me that UAW has also ‘been having conversations with different healthcare unions’ that are interested in joining. The union United Electrical Workers is also having ‘active conversations’ about the call for contract alignment, the union’s general president, Carl Rosen, told me. Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA who called for a general strike to end the government shutdown in 2019, told me over text message, ‘The call for aligning contract expirations and planning for a general strike is powerful in and of itself. The consciousness of the power of solidarity that grows from cross-sector organizing begins to change social order before feet hit the streets.’ Not every effort to get formal support, though, has been successful. The National Education Association voted down a new business item supporting the alignment on the first day of its representative assembly, before the National Education Association Staff Organization went on strike.” • How about the Longshoremen? Boeing’s machinists?
“How ham radio endures – and remains a disaster lifeline – in the iPhone era|” (ZDnet). “In the aftermath of a catastrophe, ham radio operators play a vital role in relaying messages between disaster victims and their concerned friends and family members. These skilled volunteers use their equipment to establish communication networks, often when cell towers are down and internet access is unavailable…. In a disaster, ham radio operators create self-organized networks to relay messages in and out of affected areas. …. ” • Fun for the whole family! Get yourselves a license (along with your passport…).
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert (UNDERSCORE) strether (DOT) corrente (AT) yahoo (DOT) com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MR:
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
MR writes: “Neither antidote nor plantidote, but wow! From last night, looking north from south shore of lake ontario outside Rochester, NY.” For this time only, as a conceptual dodge that will allow me to post this photo, I will deem th plant-derived construct at lower right a plant. And weren’t these Northern Lights pretty big and pretty far South? What’s up with that? Disturbance in the force?
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